Here’s your trade on Apple (AAPL)…courtesy of Amazon (AMZN). (September 12, 2017)
I want to look at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) today. First let’s look at Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), and I will tell you why. Do you remember this? Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), back here some place, said that they are buying Whole Foods ( NASDAQ:WFM ), and, “Oh my gosh! Stop the world, it’s awesome! This is a stock that is going to $2000.00.” And by the way, it might. Who knows? But you look at this, the stock peaks on really, really good news, it hasn’t been back there since.
I am looking at Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and I am smelling the same thing. Frankly, I will say it, I think you can short Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). Cautiously; but the reason you can short it is because your risk is very, very low. And the reason it is very low is because this is so close to the all-time high. You can short the stock and put in a buy stop literally right there. Why do I say that you can be doing this? From a technical standpoint, again, this is the top and so you want to be entering a trade as close as possible to the, “Oh crap! I’m wrong, level!” That is the epitome of a low-risk trade. It just is.
I would look at this and say, “This is the, “Oh crap! I’m wrong,” level. Now, aside from the technicals, and by the way, I can be WAY early in this. I mean, way early. What I like to do, I think the better trades, as far as shorts go, are stocks that ultimately trade down (forget about this line here), they trade down for a while and then they make a couple lows or highs that are lower. Lower highs and lower lows. And then short them down here as they fail. So you have essentially a track record of distribution. A little bit of buying, Boom! That is the top, and then the stock moves lower.
A couple different things with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). I didn’t see the presentation, though I did catch some of it on YouTube later. A couple things stand out. First of all, the way the stock behaved during the presentation. It actually started here at 1:00 Eastern Time, 10:00 Pacific. The stock moves up a little bit, not a whole lot. It looks like it had a big move but percentage wise, what? A little over a percent. Not a big deal. And then as the presentation went on the stock starts tapering off. I am not going to bore you. I am not to bore me with all the details of exactly what Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) was offering. It does seem a little bit busy in the store. We will put it that way. You have got so many different choices that a lot of people, you might think, I am not going to make a choice. I don’t think that is true because if somebody wants to buy an iPhone they are not going to say, “Well, screw it. I am going to buy a Galaxy because I can’t decide which iPhone to buy.” Not going to do it.
If somebody wants to buy an Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) watch, they are not going to buy a Fitbit ( NYSE:FIT ) because they don’t know whether they want this one or that one or the other thing. If they want it, they want it.
What I am saying is, it costs money to make all that stuff, to have all those different options. The most important thing is, I looked at the video of this guy, I will tell you one thing, I would never let this buffoon play in my band. This guy walks on stage with his iPhone and he is showing off the facial recognition and it doesn’t recognize his face and he has got to go back and punch in his pin to get the iPhone to open. I am sorry. I am going to say it and at the risk of offending somebody, that is about the dumbest thing I have seen in a long time. On something like this, you don’t check the phone and make sure it works? Like I said, never play in my band. You don’t go on stage, start the click track, only to find out that the click track doesn’t work. To me, that is really kind of endemic of some bigger problems here.
I would not be long Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and I have been bullish on Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and I may wind up buying a phone and a watch but I am not going to buy this stock. I am not shorted either, but I will if this stock starts moving any lower. If the stock starts trading above 165.00, 166.00, then seriously, we can consider the uptrend vindicated, the stock is probably going to move higher. But what I am telling you is, don’t just count on this thing moving up because it is Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and they have got a new watch. It gets a lot deeper than that and I am telling you, when that guy had to punch in his code rather than have the phone smile at him when he is smiling at the phone, to me, that is Phonsie jumping the shark.