Morning Market Thoughts

Morning Market Thoughts

Market Update

Good morning. Believe it or not, the market is set to….wait for it…open slightly down. This has been the nature of the market for the past month and a half. Flat open. Slightly higher open. Open slightly lower. Open flat. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Just two items of interest for me today. First, the Case-Shiller Housing Index (20-City Composite) Index continues to show steady appreciation in the real estate market, though slightly below forecasts. But overall, sales and appreciation are solid. This is good news for markets. If housing data was showing a decline, then the flat, narrow market would be more of a concern to me because of the danger of slipping into recession. But with housing strong, it’s not a problem right now.

Next, Apple’s trick over in Ireland is finally losing its magic. The European Commission ruled that Apple is on the hook for at least a $1.1 billion fine in back taxes, and a tax of $14.5 billion bucks, for “illegal tax benefits” from its operations in Ireland. Ireland, of course, is really ticked off and is appealing the decision. Why? Because Apple employs about 5,000 people in Cork, Ireland. And the fine folks in that nation like having 5,000 jobs…and all the economic benefits that come along with the local residents who are employed. When you’ve got a job, you also have money to spend on clothes, food, insurance, housing, cars, eating at restaurants, subscriptions to great information like Stock Market Mentor (a must for every market participant), schools, etc.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out because I’m wondering if Tim Cook will be as keen about having a big operation in a place that no longer affords favorable tax treatment. (Note: the Ireland trick is an extreme, where a company, properly structured, pays a tax of not more than 1%. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to Ireland’s already super low tax of 12.5%. But I wonder if having its taxes raised will prompt some action on Apple’s part to compensate for higher taxes.

Anyway, that’s really all I’ve got this morning. Just not any market-moving news this morning.

See you in the forum.


Sometimes you just want to squeeze someone’s face. Today, let’s squeeze facebook (FB). (August 29, 2016)

Free Chart


I want to look a Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB ) today. The stock gapped up big time on really nice earnings a month ago. Since that time it hasn’t come anywhere NEAR that opening print, which often happens, kind of like it’s done here and various other times in the past. The point is, since that time, this stock has been just trending sideways in an ever narrowing range. The reason I’m mentioning it today is, 2 days on a very low volume market, 2 days where the stock has traded higher and it’s been ON volume that has been higher than average by far.

Now you say, “Well what about that line Dan?” Well okay, fine. That’s the average volume over the last 50 days, which includes these big spikes. But if we just simply change this to 10 you see what I’m talking about, much higher volume. And this is the stuff that matters if you’re trading these squeezes. You want to see a volatility CONTRACTION, fewer big swings, tighter and tighter ranges on light volume. The light volume tells you that there’s kind of like nothing really happening here. NOTHING TO SEE HE, move on. And then suddenly volume picks up, the stock starts moving, that happens in sync and then more and more folks, like me, start looking at the stock saying, “Oh gosh! Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB ) is on the move, got to get in.” So what am I saying to you? Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB ) is on the move, got to get in.