The most interesting pattern that’s not yet at a buy point. (March 18, 2015)
I want to look at Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB ) today. The Fed basically came out today and said we don’t have a clue about what’s going on. If we say enough contradictory things there’s enough in there for everybody, so thanks very much for playing “Jeopardy”. Meanwhile, stocks rally and what’s happening with Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB )?
I think this is one of the more interesting stocks that I’m seeing out there. It’s not at a buy point yet, not at all. If you’re buying it now at 80.91 then you were also thinking that maybe it’s a buy here, or here, or back here, or here. Basically all the times when it was right to sell, as opposed to buy, you’re looking at it now saying, “Well, I think this time’s the charm, this is the time that the stock is going to breakout.”
Don’t do that, don’t play that game because if it is you can buy it at 80.91 and then the stock ultimately goes above $82.00 and closes above there. If it does that then what’s that telling us? It’s telling us that this very, very long period of consolidation has run it’s course and the stock is moving higher again. So you’re buying at 80.91 as opposed to waiting for a close above 82.00, we’ll say even 82.50. What’s your risk?
Your risk is missing out on less than $2.00 of a move. If you don’t buy now, if you wait for say 82.50, you’re missing out on less than $2.00 of a move that will likely take this stock through $100.00. So you go ahead and focus on making every last dollar, every last penny you can on this stock. For me, I want to wait until there’s solid evidence that this time is different than this time, and even this time, and this time, and this time, etcetera, etcetera.
Wait for the stock to tell you that this time is different, wait for it to show you that this time is different. If you’re sitting here predicting, you may in fact be right because guess what? These were the lows, this is a higher low, there’s a higher likelihood that a breakout from here is going to persist and continue and make you a lot of money. Why not give it about $1.50 more? Give it a little bit more room to move and then once the stock starts closing above 82.50 or so, that’s when you want to buy Facebook ( NASDAQ:FB ).
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