Morning Market Update

Morning Market Update

by DAN Market Update

Good morning. Futures are down just a bit this morning, despite retail sales coming in higher than expected. I think that, with each passing day, the market is increasingly looking forward to additional stimulus boosting buying power even further.

Just a quick run-through of a few stocks:

$RIOT — I received some feedback on last night’s treatment of $RIOT, and it was great to see people understanding that there are low risk ways to trade high risk stocks. It’s up another 9% this morning, and you can use the same strategy of staggered stops and incremental buying. Just make sure you know what you’re doing. If you are wondering whether you know what you’re doing…you don’t.

Bitcoin popped through $51,000 and was up at $51,714 at one point. I have found that trading bitcoin is not as profitable as merely holding it. Trading it requires a great deal of time because it is so volatile. But the trend is decidedly higher, so why not just ride the lightening until the current flow stops?

$SHOP — reported good numbers but the stock is down. This highlights the risk of holding a stock over earnings — particularly when it has rallied strongly into the earnings number. Buy the anticipation; sell the event.

$PTON — Holding at support…right at the bottom of the range.

$TME — opening a bit higher this morning after a high volume breakout yesterday. This is a high squeeze pattern, which can have a lower chance of a big move simply because the start of the move comes from a squeeze that is extended above the 50-day moving average.

$ZM — continues to move higher along the upper Bollinger Band. Really nice, gentle trend.

$NIO — This trade is not working out. T he stock is going to open lower for the 5th consecutive day. I’m shutting this down rather than holding through lower prices in the hope that the bulls will bail us out. Hope isn’t a good method; it’s a strategy used by traders who do not understand the nature of risk.

Have a good day.

–Dan

Here’s how you can hang on to Riot Blockchain ($RIOT) on a daily basis. (February 16, 2021)

by DAN Free Chart

RIOT 

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Riot Blockchain ( NASDAQ: RIOT ) just continues to run. So if you bought this stock when it was back here in this consolidation, this is a company that mines Bitcoin, which given the price of Bitcoin it’s not a bad place to be. If you are buying this stock on the breakout, what you have got to understand is, these Bollinger Bands, they are almost 40 percent wide here when it was tight. The last really good entry was on this break out from this volatility squeeze.

Let’s say you didn’t do that, some of you probably did and you are probably still holding it and you are going, I’m really an awesome trader, and frankly you are. But if you bought it up here you are not sitting quite so pretty. You got the breakout and the stock is running, this thing went just about 25 percent just today.

Let’s talk about how you hang onto this stock. You will see that trading, for the most part of the upper Bollinger Band, I think this lower close was even above it but you’ve got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 consecutive days where the close was above the upper Bollinger Band, which is kind of a law of statistics that you are not supposed to break, and most of the trading day was also above there, so this is super, super strong. I don’t think you can do the typical momentum trader thing, where you just say, I will just hold it until or unless it falls below the 8-day moving average. For crying out loud, that’s 30 percent. You don’t want to give back 30 or 31 percent from where the stock is right now.

I think one way you can do it is, use the prior day’s, and that would be today, use the prior day’s intraday low then at least it’s a little more manageable, you are risking about 10-12 percent if you are just holding this stock only looking at this chart. And you are saying, I am going to hang onto the stock unless it prints a lower intraday low than the day before; because you will see, over the last 3-days it has never done that. And then even here, only for a moment.

And so this has generally been running higher intraday lows all of the way along, You can hang onto this stock unless the stock starts moving to a new low. And then that gives you a pretty good sense that maybe to move isn’t over. We don’t know that, but at least you know it’s doing something different and it’s not a good different. That’s how I would trade Riot Blockchain ( NASDAQ: RIOT ). By the way, this thing is just running even now, so this thing just won’t stop.