Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)

Strategy Session July 18th, 2013

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  • DrScience: $AMD the little chip that thinks it can -- it thinks it can. Rising from weekly chart zigzag bottom, up 6% on the day.
  • grcjr: @DrScience $AMD - I spotted an upgrade for $AMD to neutral from underperform this morning. Does not make me feel that great. I do not know the firm Macquarie. I do expect $AMD and $NVDA to do well on the holiday gamer market.
  • DrScience: @grcjr $AMD Macquarie is a respected Australian firm, the $GS or $MS of Asia.
  • grcjr: @DrScience $AMD $GS $MS Thanks. Hope your day was quite profitable.
  • grcjr: $NVDA $AMD $INTC #SC17 - I'm seeing a number of reports claiming issues with $NVDA and $AMD as ASICs and FPGAs will gain share in the AI arena. $INTC 's new product briefings at #SC17 showed that Intel is intending to play in this area with new chips that include FPGA's. Curiously, $NVDA $INTC and $AMD are all up today. For one report, see I'm not changing my long range news on $NVDA although I have no current position.
  • grcjr: $NVDA $AMD Asic FPGA - chatted with a colleague this afternoon who is still doing AI (I'm not but still following). We both laughed at those that would think that ASICs and FPGAs will really impact the AI efforts for either $AMD or $NVDA. ASIC/FPGAs do have a play for the IoT (toasters, frig, etc) but there is just not that much overlap with $AMD and $NVDA AI targets. $INTC and $IBM may/will challenge. There are a couple other very small wantabees. A year or two from now may see a change but that's largely beyond my investing horizon.
  • bsafriet: @grcjr $NVDA $AMD $INTC $IBM Thanks for sharing that intelligence with us. I’ve been reading same stories and didn’t think that ASICS or FPGAs were viable alternatives for the AI/deep learning application. Market uses any trumped up sto ...
  • grcjr: @bsafriet $NVDA $AMD $INTC $IBM ... no insider info. Just my career in High Performance Computing. It is really tough to filter the noise. I've reading posts by $MS and $NVDA today. It is tough to find the truth sometime.
  • traderbren: @grcjr $AMD - thanks, will turn on the volume and re-wind.
  • grcjr: $AMD CEO on CNBC. Very good interview. Bitcoin mining very small part of business.
  • bsafriet: @grcjr $AMD $NVDA Surprised both took the hits that they did today. $AMD stated at Q3 E/R conference call that GPU sales for bitcoin mining were not significant Q3 and would be inconsequential Q4. Similar story for $NVDA. Treating this pullback as a buying opportunity to reestablish my position in $NVDA that I sold to protect gains prior to Q3 E/R. Also long $AMD.
  • grcjr: $AMD $NVDA The current selloff of $AMD and $NVDA on analyst crypto concerns ignores the fact that the crypto part of $NVDA 's business is a very small part of their sales. New gamer platforms and new games as well as Artificial Intelligence/Machine L ...
  • Bridget: Notes: Lots of breakout today from squeezes: $DIA $GLW $BAX $AFL $CHRW $MCD $LEA $UNH $PII $FAST $XRT - lots of retail stocks that have been beaten down are showing some strength $M $ANF $TJX $BBY $THO $WGO - up big after earnings Banking stocks rallying today $XLF $KBE $BAC $C $SCHW $ETFC $AMTD Also credit cards - $V $MA $AXP Tech is a mixed bag $AMD $NVDA $ADI - pulling back $MSFT $NFLX - about to breakout Aeospace & Defense up today $HON $BA $LLL Shorting $ALRM $BSX $MOMO
  • grcjr: $AMD $NVDA - CNBC spot (finally) pointed out that the cost of bitcoin mining is too expensive (cost of HW and electricity). The techies have known this for some time. The most cost effective approach has been custom ASICs and even there its not really cost effective. Luckily, the bitcoin mining hit should not blow the earnings.
  • Wolf: $AMD Drifting through the 20DMA, starting to squeeze. Watch it if it gets above 11.50.
  • Wolf: $AMD #Cup-and-handle Is a cup and handle on a 5 minute chart a continuation?
  • grcjr: ...
    The company name "Cray" has been around since 1972 when Seymour left Control Data Corporation to go on his own. Operating under a number of names as one Cray company failed, split, changed, merged, and/or sold. Merged with $SGI in 1996. In ...
  • grcjr: From Supercomputing 2017 (SC17): simple summary (more later) Huge amount of coverage of Deep Learning/Artificial Intelligence by vendors and users. Including a bit about the dangers, particularly hacking and spoofing these systems. Bullish: $NVDA, $INTC, $NVDA $MU, ... and did I mention $NVDA (they had over 250 employees at the conference) ? Semi bullish to neutral side note: $AAPL, $AVGO, $QCOM, $NXPI ... Although none of these were present, there was a lot of 1 on 1 and small group discussion about these. Neutral: $AMD (although the collaboration with $INTC using the $AMD graphics chip may work out), Bearish: $IBM, $HPE I'll post a bit more over the next week as I finish my notes.
  • DAN: @grcjr $NVDA $INTC $MU $AAPL $AVGO $QCOM $NXPI $AMD $IBM $HPE Great information, grcjr. Really appreciate you sharing this with us, and I look forward to your notes. $-)
  • DrScience: $AMD $INTC hookup on new chip package impressed both stocks' traders before the open, but both appear to be looking for some enthusiastic bulls to fight off the bears selling the news.
  • gwenzee: $NVDA I was late to the party but finally arrived on 10/23 @ $197.62. Reports this Thursday and I am holding over earnings. Arch rivals $AMD and $INTC will be collaborating on PC chips. IMO the real growth for NVDA is in AI and deep learning so this marriage shouldn't have a big effect. TP and buy ratings in Sept., Oct.,, and Nov. have been in $210-$250 range. And don't forget autonomous driving.
  • grcjr: @gwenzee $NVDA $AMD $INTC - A distinction. $INTC will still make their CPUs. $AMD will provide a special $GPU. From Tech Trader Daily: Shares of Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) are up 62 cents, or 6%, at $11.74, after the company this morning announced it has won a deal to supply Intel(INTC) with a custom-built graphics processor, or GPU, to accompany an Intel(INTC) microprocessor for building thin and light personal computers that nevertheless have higher performance. Power, heat, performance - tough to control all.
  • gwenzee: @grcjr $NVDA $AMD $INTC $GPU My point was that this "deal" will not topple NVDA.
  • rck89: $AMD any hope for this stock? Thinking of adding, but talking myself out of it! Any thoughts?
  • DrScience: @rck89 $AMD I'm thinking we wait for Santa and the Christmas gift-giving season.
  • rck89: @DrScience $AMD So now you tell me! This stock has been (is) the perpetual "also ran" since the 1970's! I just dumped this dog at a small loss - never more!
  • bsafriet: @rck89 $AMD actually appears to have put in a bottom. The pop above $11.00 is encouraging, but it has faded back to $10.90. I believe that the sell-off is overdone, but would wait for a confirmation that the selling is indeed ove before re-entering. I’m long and holding.
  • grcjr: $INTC up another 2.5% today. $AAPL news that they are moving to $INTC for next iPhone and that current iPhone is dual sourced (so I infer that $QCOM is not in the current new iPhones as much as they would have been). $QCOM down 7.34% today. If $INTC can provide chips to $AAPL they can do it with others. I believe $QCOM will be down tomorrow and perhaps much more over time. I'd be short. $INTC is not done going up. Unfortunately $AAPL and $QCOM will not be at the Supercomputing 17 conference in November so I won't get anything from them. But $INTC may have some announcements. I will be reporting on actionable info in $INTC, $AMD, $STX, $MU, $CRAY and others from the conference.
  • bsafriet: $AMD down 8% on MS downgrade. PT $8.00 based on lack of momentum in X86 processors. This is getting hard to hold! Long small position.
  • grcjr: $AMD - even this ticker is up today in the premarket.
  • bmcguire04: $AMD Any suggestions on $AMD this morning after earnings yesterday? I pulled my stop so I wouldn't get stopped out at the opening bell but not sure how to play it from here.
  • grcjr: @bmcguire04 $AMD - I'm not planning to do anything until support is found. At that point I'll look and decide whether to reenter or not. Likely, I will have found a more promising ticker by then. If you are still holding, watch for a bounce. If it bounces I'd be selling. If it fails to hold, I'd be selling. At this time, $AMD is sitting on the 200 dma, below the 20dma and 50dma. Not very encouraging.
  • Henry: @bmcguire04 $AMD It's not the stock it was in 2016. People keep going back to the well on broken stocks. The good news is that it has been in a range of 10-15 all this year. At some point it will trade toward the top of the range, but it may test the lows before that happens.
  • grcjr: $INTC TheFlyOnTheWall is reporting aggressive put buyer ahead of earnings. $INTC reports tomorrow after the close. They mention $AMD earnings as a possible supporting reason. Protecting $INTC gains. $INTC did hit another 52+ week high
  • bsafriet: @bmcguire04 $AMD Sold off on Q4 guidance for a 15% decrease in revenue (12-18%). Bottom of range is above consensus estimates. My shot at Q4 eps based on midpoint rev was also above consensus revenue. Another possible reason for the selling was the remark by the CEO about sales of GPUs for crypto currency mining. She thinks they’ve peaked and has no plans for aggressively pursuing that market. Some concern that $AMD is conceding that market to $NVDA. $AMD revenue historically is down in Q4 due to sales to game console makers peaking in Q3 for the holiday build cycle. My take is that the selling is overdone and expect price to rebound. Long stock and options.
  • bsafriet: @bmcguire04 $AMD I’m long $AMD, $INTC and $NVDA. All have excellent growth stories and decided not to try and pick THE winner and bought positions in all three. Admittedly, $AMD is the smaller of the 3 positions.
  • Ottawagreg: $UCTT ER is this afternoon after the bell. Given the $AMD situation just yesterday, and repeated mentoring by DAN not to hold into earnings I realize that it is safest to sell before EOD. I am holding 100 shares at pretty much break even. It was at a high $34.59 last Thursday and trading now at $32.66. Would it be crazy to hold 50 shares into ER? I realize it is a gamble, but curious about the thoughts of others on the risk/reward of this idea. THANKS!
  • bsafriet: @Ottawagreg $UCTT $AMD In General, I think this is a good strategy if you have gains to protect (@bridget uses this strategy and passed it on to me) Given current market conditions (see my post below), I think a better choice is to sell all 100 shar ...
  • Bridget: ...
    $AMD - is this move foretelling of what we will see from $INTC?
    $CMG - big miss on earnings. The bad news keeps coming. But the selling seems to have stopped. Lots of overhead resistance
    $T - new lows, could go lower
    $ALK - big selloff, no sign of b ...
  • :
  • rachel: ...
    $AMD – big selloff. Support at $12…but this is a broken stock. Ignore it!

    China Down:

    $BABA -- breaking down on volume. Stay out of this. Earnings on 11/2…but a lot can happen between now and then. Don’t use the hope ...
  • Bridget: Earnings after the close: $AMD $CMG $TXN $AKAM $T Earnings tomorrow morning: $BA $FCX $V $KO $LUV
  • bsafriet: $AMD Crashing A/H's , beat Q3 eps and rev and guided rev to be up 20%+ for year, BUT guiding Q4 rev to decrease by 15% yr/yr. Last was $13.31, a/h low 13.00.
  • bsafriet: @bsafriet $AMD at least part of the projected Q4 revenue decline was attributed to Q4-16 having 15 wks vs Q4-17 having 12 wks but not sure I heard this correctly. Note that AMD is referring to the Oct quarter as 2017 Q2 vs all others desiginating th ...
  • bsafriet: $AMD Gross margin expansion up 2% y/y to 33%. Outlook is for 34%., 2018 > 36% and 2020 expected >40%. Very positive for eps. The long term financial model is for eps > $0.75.
  • bsafriet: $AMD. Clarification of #weeks in quarters: Q4 2017 based on 13 weeks Q4 2016 was a 14 week quarter This difference accounts for approximately 50% of guided Q4 2017 y/y revenue decrease of 15%
  • DrScience: $AMD According to some, this is a highly anticipated quarter for semiconductor stocks, and $AMD kicks thing off in their report after the bell tomorrow. After a volatile previous quarter, pushing the stock up into last earnings release, investors have been a bit less sanguine about bidding the stock up into this quarter's release. Good news could set up a move toward the $19 target, and pull all the semis with it, or bad news brews up a recipe for disaster if the company misses after all the AI and crypto-currency hype. FD: I'm long covered calls at the 14, 15, and 16 levels.
  • grcjr: @DrScience $AMD - I've been trying to get a handle of the tech stocks. After a nice run, is it going to be tougher to meet or beat expectations. I am going to trim my Calls and hold my stock in $AMD and other tech positions. Thanks for your thoughts.
  • JBed: $GILD bounced off the 50 MA - waiting to see how high. $AMD expecting move upward next 1-2 days after consolidation.
  • Bridget: $AMD looks to be making a run to earnings on 10/26
  • grcjr: @Bridget $AMD - Good morning @Bridget. I've been adding recently ... twice this week. Will trim Call position prior to earnings. Thanks for the posts.
  • StockMarketMentor: A Price Alert has been triggered for $AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc.. Click here to view associated video clip:
  • grcjr: $AMD making nice move on news of a "New AMD Embedded GPU Delivers Up to 3X Performance-Per-Watt for Low-Power Embedded Applications"
  • grcjr: $AMD still moving ... currently up 6% for the day.
  • champ: @grcjr $AMD ---- Strength is attributed to #Vague M&A speculation....Be Aware.
  • grcjr: @champ $AMD $NVDA - Thanks for the post. There has been buyout speculation on $AMD going back at least a decade. There have been times they could/should have gone out of business. I'm happy they made it so far. I've not found any fresh posts regarding M&A. I believe it would likely be good for $AMD to be acquired. Other news: StreetInsider reports record short interest on $AMD. This could be fueling the rise today following the new product announcement. $NVDA also makes low power GPU chips. I will get a better view on the competitive position of the two at the Supercomputing conference in November. For now, I'm very happy with my stock and option positions in $NVDA and $AMD. Regards.
  • DrScience: $INTC and $TXN hitting all-time highs while $AMD and $NVDA languish. Safety trade? $INTC breaking out from a double (triple, if you look at the weekly chart) top. Blue sky. $TXN breakout from VS working well, On the weekly chart, a steady incline with some bumps. Stock really extended, appears to need a pullback to buy, but if you're in, ride it till it bucks you off.
  • bigbartabs: @DAN $TSLA $AMD $NVDA ... you can bet that Tesla went to a lot of other sources first... like Intel. So for it to turn into a deal with AMD... Tesla might not have had that compelling of a story to tell.
  • harrylan1: @DAN $NVDA $TSLA $AMD cnbc issued a correction that states "GlobalFoundries CEO Sanjay Jha mentioned Tesla as an example of a company working with chip fabricators, but did not specifically say that it was a GlobalFoundries customer." GlobalFoundries is the spinoff from AMD that was originally reported to be working with tesla.
  • Wolf: #Good-news_Bad-news. The good news is I bought $AMD. The bad news is I bought $NVDA. A little more good news is I BTO weekly 185 puts....
  • DAN: Good morning. But it's not a good morning for some of the leaders in this rally. Apple ($AAPL) has an iPhone that has connectivity issues -- and connectivity is the key selling point! This morning, Raymond James published the results of a supply-c ...
  • DAN: @harrylan1 $NVDA $TSLA $AMD Hmmmm. This is interesting and might be profitable!!
  • Henry: @DAN $NVDA $TSLA $AMD According to Twitter, CNBC hasn't said one word about this story this morning one way or the other...odd
  • grcjr: $NVDA $AMD $TSLA - a thought: $TSLA is only one car maker working on driverless technology and their volume is not that large. The question I want to answer is whether $AMD will be able to grow their market share for a new chip that may not exist yet. Also when will volume shipments begin. I believe that $NVDA is still the leader in this segment.
  • bigbartabs: @Wolf $AMD $NVDA #Good-news_Bad-news ... I sold a pretty big position in $SOXL yesterday... glad I did.
  • Lynda: @grcjr $NVDA $AMD $TSLA I am sure you are correct. However the market doesn't always behave rational, you are dealing with people's emotions and it's difficult to predict the reaction.
  • champ: @bigbartabs $AMD $NVDA $SOXL #Good-news_Bad-news ---- I sold a large position in $AMD in the #AH's market yesterday, on the big bounce and I'm also glad I did...and the reason why was.... this stock bounce last time the same way on news, in the AH 's last time also on volume and I also sold that position and now I'm watching for another new entry....just saying how I and others play these type of bounces.
  • bsafriet: $NVDA Have taken no action with my position (long term hold). Appears to be working on an intra-day low (177.61). Has reversed , currently 179.54 - 6.30 Thinking about buying back covered calls and buying long calls. No position (yet) in $AMD, but watching....
  • Wolf: @bigbartabs $AMD $NVDA $SOXL #Good-news_Bad-news Nice trade. You dodged a bullet.
  • optionswealth: @bsafriet $NVDA $AMD I caught the tail end of a comment yesterday that I haven't been able to confirm that AAPL was teaming with AMD to make their own AI chip. If anyone heard the same or can correct the snippet I heard, please do.
  • bsafriet: @optionswealth $NVDA $AMD That would be news to me -- haven't seen/heard/read about that posibility anywhere.
  • rck89: $NVDA STO $NVDA Nov 180/155 BuPS @ 8.74 cr.(average)...added to positions as stock traded lower after open. Rode this puppy all the way down since I believe that the $TSLA - $AMD deal is insignificant! Believe $NVDA will spike into earnings (Nov 9th).
  • :
  • traderbren: $AMD - wow, a major reversal once news hit that there was no confirmation of a deal with $TSLA.
  • rck89: @traderbren $AMD $TSLA But this "new" news isn't helping either stock or $NVDA for that matter.
  • DAN: $TSLA $AMD $NVDA -- isn't it interesting that all three stocks are down today, despite the wonderful and earth shattering news that TSLA and AMD are partnering on a chip to let your car drive you off a cliff while you blithely read a book or watch a movie on your iPhone. Traders sold into it. $AMD is actually down more than $TSLA. These are three stocks you should be avoiding (though I do still have a short position on TSLA -- via short calls).
  • traderbren: @rck89 $AMD $TSLA $NVDA - agreed, but I think $NVDA will likely bounce back irrespective of the news.
  • Gblair: @DAN $TSLA $AMD $NVDA Deal is questionable at this point and reason for selling this morning was a denial of the AMD rumor reported by CNBC (AMD) Partner Globalfoundries Isnt Working with Tesla (TSLA) on New Chip - Bloomberg, Citing Spokesman/13316138.html Still confusing as CNBC refuses to acknowledge they bungled the story aside from Melissa Lee tweeting Melissa Lee (@MelissaLeeCNBC) 9/21/17, 7:54 AM Bye $AMD gains... "Globalfoundries says Tesla has not committed to working with co on autonomous driving technology" - Reuters
  • Gblair: $AMD officially denies deal with $TSLA (AMD) Officially Denies Tesla (TSLA) Rumors/13317752.html
  • harrylan1: @Gblair $AMD $TSLA That's ok. I'm sure all those that knew that CNBC was going to falsely hype this made plenty of money.
  • issues: @harrylan1 $AMD $TSLA Fake news? Fabricated news? The media wouldn't do that, now would they?
  • grcjr: @Gblair $AMD $TSLA - I'm amazed that they waited so long to deny it.
  • grcjr: $AMD spike just before the close
  • jwstich: @grcjr $AMD impressive.
  • grcjr: @jwstich $AMD $TSLA working together for new AI chip.
  • StockMarketMentor: A Price Alert has been triggered for $AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc.. Click here to view associated video clip:
  • champ: @jwstich $AMD ---- @ $14.13 up around a $1....Yes, very and I'm holding a large position.
  • rah: @grcjr $AMD - Up 8% in the last 30 min. Hard to contain my inner moth. rah
  • DAN: @Robert1965 $NVDA $TSLA working with $AMD on an autopilot chip. Traders figured it would be Nvidia. That's why the stock is falling. Should be interesting tomorrow.
  • Ottawagreg: @StockMarketMentor $AMD is exploding AH. up from 13.74 at the close to 14.62 in AH trading in less than two hours. I was going to buy waiting for the entry point of 13.45, but did not see the alert until the market was closing.. Over 6% and I do not have the ability to trade AH. I missed out on another one, very frustrating.
  • bsafriet: @DAN $NVDA $TSLA $AMD The big question tonight is do you sell $NVDA TONIGHT and buy $AMD TONIGHT in the after hours mkt or wait till tomorrow? Unclear what the $$$ loss to $NVDA will be and what the $$$ gain will be for $AMD. $TSLA will own the new ...
  • Raos: @bsafriet $NVDA $TSLA $AMD This dip in $NVDA maybe a buying opportunity. $NVDA maybe too big to fail. They have BMW, Toyota, Volvo, Audi (and maybe more). More than this being bad news for $NVDA .. it could be bad news for $INTC.
  • grcjr: @bsafriet $NVDA $TSLA $AMD - whatever your leanings I believe the major moves are done. There may be follow through in the morning but I'll wait to see which direction they take.
  • grcjr: $AMD - if you look back at my posts you will see that I used to slam $AMD. They used to be an incredible chip with the best memory bandwidth. All machines from $Cray used them at that time. Then $AMD blew it for a couple product cycles and $CRAY and ...
  • grcjr: @grcjr $AMD $Cray $CRAY $INTC $NVDA $TSLA If any of you plan to be at the Supercomuting show this year (in Denver), I plan to be there. Let's meet. Any questions?
  • DrScience: $AMD up strong this morning on $NVDA's upgrade. Trapped between the 200 and 50 DMA's but testing the 50 from below, a move above $13.05ish should see some good follow-through.
  • grcjr: $AMD up nicely today
  • tigerjohn8: $AMD fell like a knife from 13 to close to 12 . Found supported at 12 a number of times in last month. I took a small position
  • DrScience: $AMD dipped below the 200 DMA to start the week, but has rallied back above the 50. Looks like the stock has a little more gas in the tank. Still, I'm bidding on OCT 15 Calls @ .45 to cover some stock ahead of the long weekend.
  • woodman: #Tech - some charts of interest: As #Risk-Reward trades among tech stocks on my watchlists (due to support/where you can put a stop): $AXTI $CAMT $AMD $POWI $MPWR Others on my tech list with interesting charts: $NVDA $NOVT $STM (multi top cup and handle) $MCHP $ORBK $EXTR (made the cup but not really a handle yet) $KEM (hard to buy b/c doesn't pullback much)
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Stock Price $USD 11.26
Change 1.35%
Volume 44,629,500

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company with manufacturing, research and development, and sales and administrative facilities throughout the world. It provides processing solutions for the computing and graphics markets.

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