The Blackstone Group L.P. Representing Limited Partnership Interests (NYSE:BX)
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- bRobert: $BX nh Flag trigger $39 $41 $45 targets Long stock/leap calls
- baronp0329: Today closed a lot to lock in profits. $BLUE, $BX, $FND, $BAC calls. Yesterday at the close, STC $THO calls, $COST calls, $EA calls, $IIIN calls, $AKS calls. Just bought $IWM Feb Puts and $QID in case the market has a couple of down days.
- bRobert: $BX $45+ target WEEKLY throwback/flag. Long stock/leap calls. 5% dividend kicker.
- bRobert: $BX flag trigger. or phase 3 if you la\ike. Weekly breakout Targets $39 then $45+. Look at the weekly.
- bRobert: $BX Weekly flag/throwback Target 1 $39 then $45+ Long stock and Leap calls 2019 JAN 40 ($1.30) spreads JAN 40 - 45 ($0.8)
- bRobert: $BX "phase 2" Weekly breakout/throwback. Targets $39 then $45+
- bRobert: $BX nh WEEKLY breakout Targets $39 $45
- dcphinney: @bRobert $BX JPM just raised target to $45
- bRobert: @dcphinney $BX They're piggy backing my call :) No original research.
- bRobert: $BX nh . extended. Target $39 . $45+ . Add on pullbacks
- bRobert: $BX . Are holders a bit happier? Long term target $45+
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, Ah, yes, at last!! Thanks for the follow-up!
- bRobert: $BX Watching for WEEKLY MACD cross. Long stock/leaps Targets $35 , $39 $45
- bRobert: $BX Throwback done. Target 1 $36 Then $39 Then $45+
- bRobert: $BX Higher high. Weekly target $50 $39 shorter term
- bRobert: $BX ADX >20 Long leap calls andstock.. Target 1 $39+ $45 longer term
- bRobert: $BX I guess some may stop whining about this fly by night financail and the "terrible " dividend
- bRobert: $BX . ADX cross. Target 1 $40.
- bRobert: $BX looking for pahase 3 type move, 50d . bounce. LONG term weekly target $45
- cmaxwel1: @Bridget $XLU $SMH $IYR $NKE $DK $CVX $LEN $BX $X $TIF $IR $CRZO $APC $PXD $CLR $LNG $PTEN $XEC $CXO $CTXS $LEA $CCL $RCL $ACN $DQ $DOV $PCG $EWW $KMX $TTD $SOI $GOOS $HOME $GDI $WTTR #Notes $XLU buy limit order 50.16, 76 day avg seems to be support for the index. and has a yield.
- JLF: @bRobert $FIVE Started a small position, also followed @Bridget on the Jan Bear Call Spread. $BX feels great going from down app. $4 a share to less than 50 cents down. Again, thank you and everyone else. Joe
- bRobert: $BX pop. Sure many will be happy to see. Target $39
- Bridget: $BX breaking out of this very tight squeeze
- bRobert: @Bridget $BX Good things happen to those who wait.
- cmaxwel1: @Bridget $BX (added small to existing)
- bRobert: $BX ADX MACD cross.
- issues: @bRobert $BX Did you buy BX?
- bRobert: @issues $BX I OWN BX. Always have since $21 area I don't buy breakouts. I buy pullbacks. Use the WEEKLY as my compass. I will add on pullback/higher low. Target 1 $39+
- cmaxwel1: $BX wow big move from this mroning when I bought
- bRobert: @cmaxwel1 $BX that's why it jumped. You are a market mover.
$BX - strong breakout, wait for phase 2
$X - if flag flies at half mast, profit target is $38.5
$TIF - continuing higher after flag
$IR - high volume volatility squeeze
Energy stocks that aren't as extended - $CRZO $APC $PXD $CLR $LNG $PTEN $XEC $ ...
- debeers: @Bridget $XLU $SMH $IYR $NKE $DK $CVX $LEN $BX $X $TIF $IR $CRZO $APC $PXD $CLR $LNG $PTEN $XEC $CXO $CTXS $LEA $CCL $RCL $ACN $DQ $DOV $PCG $EWW $KMX $TTD $SOI $GOOS $HOME $GDI $WTTR #Notes Bridget $MRO not too shabby either +4.47% today.
- bRobert: $BX Sideways consolidation. Early squeeze. Nice Weekly Looking a lot like like Sept and watching for bullish resolution
- JLF: @bRobert $BX Watching with you. Appreciate your updates.
- bRobert: @JLF $BX The WEEKLY chart should be reassuring. Filters out the daily chart background noise that causes people to reach for their antacids and shakes them out prematurely
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, am with you there! Hope you're right. Has been in hibernation mode now for about six weeks which is surprising in view of the market surge.
- bRobert: @mopick $BX When bears come out of hibernation they're hungry and ornery.
DrScience: @bRobert $BX True! The bears are in hibernation. They only come out to check their Bloomberg terminals. The stock is NTB (Not available to borrow), opening up the possibility of a short squeeze. However...
Boo-Boo bear confirms that since chewing th ...
- mopick: @bRobert, $BX, trying to be patient here but really don't understand why this stock is not participating. Barely hanging in there, now below 50 & 200 day.
- Cwaniak: @mopick $BX I am not Robert, but I also took his BX recommendation, and lost money here. I was very suspicious from the beginning. Stock was over $34 with dividend about 6 %. Why good growth stock is offering high dividend and is not going higher? Anyway, I bought this stock and was watching. Stock was weak even when financial group was up. After two weeks I dumped that stock (took loss) around $32.5. It must be a reason (nobody knows.. including Robert) why stock is underperforming. That is why I decided to take losses. Stick with leaders, dump underperformers.
- steve71: @mopick $BX $APO $ARCC $ARES $BX $CG KKR $OAK Private equity in general is not participating. From personal experience I think that buying these stocks is tough. The charts are very volatile. The returns are highly lumpy, depending on which companies the partners just sold. Better is to just directly invest WITH the private equity firm. Returns have been about 15-20% yearly over multiple years. The drawback is lack of liquidity.
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, thanks, bRobert! Well expressed and to the point! Additionally, doesn't hurt that Schwarzman is close to Trump either. Thanks for your cogent analysis!!
- bRobert: @mopick $BX Let me try and .address your concerns. I made it clear that I'm a LONG TERM HOLDER of BX. It has appreciated more than 50% over the past year, not including the double digit dividend. No less than any of the banks. The current 5.5% ...
- bRobert: @mopick $BX $30.50 for me. Patience
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, noticed it was actually downgraded to market perform by KBW, whoever they are.
- JLF: @bRobert, @ Champ @sierramp @optionswealth @Dan $BX #Discussion middle of last month concerning being down 4 dollars a share, did not do any CCs due to lack of premiums, still have all the shares but now only down less than 1.50 share. Thank you everyone.
- bRobert: @JLF $BX #Discussion Difference between a trading stock and holding stock. this is a holding stock
- bRobert: $BX W bottom Target 1 $33+ MACD cross..
- bRobert: $BX W bottom. Target 1 $33 + Look at the weekly. Move above $34 and huge move in the future.
- mopick: @bRobert, $31 seems to be a key point here. What's your feeling with this recent decline? Ref: $BX
- bRobert: @mopick $BX Putting in double bottom. Weekly fine. that's my chart. 4 point trading range./box on daily At bottom.
- bRobert: $BX Double bottom. Trading range defined. Long.
- JLF: @bRobert $BX I'm down about $4 a share, was going to be a long term hold. Question: Would you suggest to continue to hold or cut loss? Appreciate any input. Joe
- DrScience: @JLF $BX is falling out of a weekly volatility squeeze, with some support in the $28-29 area. With that said, the 2016 lows were down at $22-23. Whether to hold or cut loose depends on your thesis, position size, and holding period. Just a note: When you think you have these guys figured out, they change the game. Even pays a variable dividend to keep you wondering just how business is going... currently 5.8%, with next ex-date toward the end of January 2018.
- bRobert: @JLF $BX On weekly chart. BX retesting breakout area around $30. Due for a bounce. Head and shoulder top completed on the daily chart. All the financials have been hit of late due to uncertainty in tax reform and interest rates. This is a multiyear position for me and am well above water. Can BX test the $28 area? Yes. I'm comfortable with BX from a long term perspective. If you're uncomfortable, sell some. You can always buy it back.
- JLF: @DrScience $BX Thank you for the objective post. I appreciate your response, right now I think I'll take some deep breaths, stick to my long term objective and monitor it without the emotions. Thank you, Joe
- JLF: @bRobert $BX Thank you for responding, I have 300 shares, I think I'll stick to my long term objective and maybe sell 2 OTM calls on an up day. Try to keep emotions in check. Thank you very much.
- mopick: @JLF $BX Am holding as well with a cost of $30.09. Smart guys, nice yield, like it here!
- mopick: @JLF $BX Noticed that some outfit, 'Recognia' says $BX is exhibiting a 'diamond top' stating that a break of $31.20 has reversed the bullish pattern and now is bearish. Target $27.10-$27.90. Perhaps @Dan could expand on just what a diamond top is?
- JLF: @mopick $BX Thank you for the information, will check on "diamond top". Joe
- JLF: @Forexpro $BX Very interesting, I need to stay focused on my original objective. Appreciate the post. Joe
Forexpro: @mopick $BX
Dunno about a "diamond top", which sounds as though it may be what Dan describes as a "flying wombat". I continue to be long this thing, and added a bit today, not at the best levels. On the daily, the s ...
- DAN: @mopick $BX A diamond pattern...looks like a diamond. It's seen as a very bearish pattern...but frankly, the formation of that pattern is so amorphous that it could apply to many stocks that are toppy. I've attached a snapshot of my interpretation of what recognia is showing. Recognia is a pattern spotting software program -- Marketsmith has similar pattern software, though they do not give price targets. Assuming BX is in a diamond pattern, then their $27 price target is logical. It's the same distance as the distance between the top and bottom of the diamond (here, $4 bucks). So take that distance, subtract it from the bottom of the diamond at $31, and you get a price target of $27. Make sense, mopick? Dan
- cmaxwel1: @JLF $BX (good discussion....I have a half sized position. I'm holding this for 3-5 years. Will try to add full size position if it hits Dan's 27 bottom.
- JLF: @cmaxwel1 $BX I was impressed with everyones insight. Take care. Joe
- JLF: @DAN $BX Appreciate the diamond pattern explanation. Joe
- bRobert: $BX bounce continues off support. Holding stock with dividend kicker.
- bRobert: $BX Added earlier. Stop below LONG term hold. Trade the chart. tune out the background noise
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, am with you on this one! All that speculation about the tax policy and adverse implications for these guys was simply nonsense.
- bRobert: @mopick $BX They are a smart bunch. they will figure out whatever comes down the pike. When the chart tells me I'm wrong, I'll listen You could easily speculate on the positive implications of a lower corporate tax rate and a change and in their corporate status from K1
- mopick: @bRobert $BX, totally agree. I think they'll be a flood of C- Corp conversions including possibly $BX. Plus less stress on fees makes these guys total winners, not to mention, that lovely 6.6% yield. Stock up 20+% YTD, double top looming above @ $35, though.
- bRobert: $BX LONG term hold. Stalking to add at support .
- Cwaniak: $BX - Any news on BX?
- bRobert: @Cwaniak $BX This is a holding stock. Look at the weekly. Collect the dividend.
- Henry: @Cwaniak $BX TOS news that private equity firms are selling off in the last 5 min, why they don't say
- Forexpro: @Henry $BX Thanks, Henry, They're susceptible to changes in the tax code, although sitting here trying to draw those lines will just give me a headache. I haven't heard much discussion of "carried interest" with regard to the current drafts, but it could be one of a number of things, most of which I likely haven't even heard of. Hope you're doing well; all the best!
- JBed: $BX just fell off a cliff. The only news I see is it is acquiring a logistics portfolio for $500M.
- Forexpro: @JBed $BX Thanks, Jbed, As Henry mentioned, it seems to be sector-wide, as $KKR also just got dumped. From Theflyonthewall: 14:49 EDT Shares of Apollo Global (APO) are leading the losses in the sector, dropping 5% in afternoon trading, while KKR (KKR) is down nearly 3%, Carlyle Group (CG) is down 1% and Blackstone (BX) is 4% lower. Hope you're faring well; all the best!
- DrScience: @JBed $BX All private equity firms falling, $KKR, $APO, $CG
- Cwaniak: @DrScience $BX $KKR $APO $CG Thanks. I need drink.
- DrScience: @Cwaniak $BX I recommend Maker's Mark.
- Cwaniak: @DrScience $BX I took The Balvenie Doublewood 12 yrs. It helped.
- Cwaniak: @bRobert $BX Thanks Robert for your cool head.
- Spotdog: @JBed $BX I believe that it has something to do with "carried interest" in the new tax proposal
- steve71: @Forexpro $BX $KKR Is there any news on Carried Interest? The Private Equity people have used that to convert what should be short term gains into a long term tax basis. At Ares, I know a couple of partners were having fits over having that tax dodge potentially taken away. And by Republicans, no less!
- Henry: @Forexpro $BX #CarriedInterest Does Carried Interest appear in our K-1's or is it only relevant to hedge fund millionaires?
- Forexpro: @steve71 $BX $KKR Hey, Steve71, That's my guess, but I'm seeing headlines reporting the result ("private equity firm stocks lower ..."), and nothing that offers a plausible explanation as to why. I'm still wandering around; if I see something that makes sense, or that might make sense to someone who knows more about accounting than I do (that's a lot of people), I'll post it. I'd like to add to $BX, but not without having a better sense as to why it has a tummy ache. Here's hoping that you're doing well; all the best!
- Forexpro: @Forexpro $BX $KKR I'm Back, Steve71, A friend came across something that looks like a proximate cause: "Private Equity names trading lower following provision in GOP tax bill that would cap interest dedications at 30% of EBITDA." Now, as to how that differs from current practice? I really don't know. Perhaps someone here can shed light. All the best!
- Peppermint: @Forexpro $BX $KKR They do a lot of their deals with leveraged buyouts so interest limitations would affect them for sure. I don't know how many have more than 30% of EBITDA as interest though.
- steve71: @Forexpro $BX $KKR Interesting. Those boys spend as much time on the arcana of tax law as on their investments.
- Forexpro: @Henry $BX #CarriedInterest Hey, Henry, As I understand it - and anyone who knows more about this stuff than I do will hopefully chime in - only the general partners of a fund are affected. The limited partners, you, me, and our friends, take what is left after the general partners are paid for their services to the fund. That's one big reason why Steve Schwarzman of $BX is a billionaire, and why he gets so thoroughly upset when changes are suggested (“It’s a war,” declared Schwarzman, speaking at a private board meeting of a nonprofit organization. “It’s like when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.”). I suspect that even he would agree that was not his finest moment. Here's hoping that you're maintaining your aplomb; all the best!
- JBed: @JBed $BX Thanks to all of you for replying. I see that $BX is bouncing now almost as steeply as it plunged.
- mopick: @steve71 $BX $KKR according to Bloomberg, no change has been made, according to the Ways & Means chairman.
- Henry: @Forexpro $BX #CarriedInterest Liz Klamen is interviewingTom Reed R NY, She says it's not part of the bill, he says it is on the table.
- Forexpro: @Henry $BX #CarriedInterest Thanks, Henry, It's almost enough to make me wish I was a K Street lobbyist. There are going to be some large bills racked up. :) Cheers!
- bRobert: @Forexpro $BX #CarriedInterest Another factor to consider long term is how a favorable corporate tax rate could entise many K1 companies to change their tax structure.
- bRobert: $BX low risk entry/
- bRobert: $BX Phase 2. Will add above $35.10
- bRobert: $BX Gap filled.
- Cwaniak: @bRobert $BX Hi Robert. What percentage of your portfolio is allocated to stock X to say "I am fully invested in stock X"? Do you follow Dan's recommendations or you have your own rules?
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