VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Excess Return (:UGAZ)

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  • stevef214: $UGAZ I sold most of my position last week and then added 1/3 back yesterday. Moved my stop to just under the open and now stopped out for decent profit. Looking to re-enter. NG has been channeling in a range between $3.17 to $3.27 since end of April and above $3 since beginning. I have no idea which way it breaks the channel so just playing the limits for now.
  • stevef214: $UGAZ Stopped out of 3/4 position at $18.19 bought awhile ago for $15.56 average. Probably should have raised my stop a couple of days ago because this will probably be the bottom.
  • rck89: @stevef214 $UGAZ Mmm? Why do you think this will be the bottom for $UGAZ? This stock trades on weather patterns that affect nat gas prices. So what are you seeing for nat gas prices? Thanks.
  • stevef214: @rck89 $UGAZ Sorry, I was not clear, actually referring to my luck to be stopped out at the bottom. Now I am waiting to see what happens with NG. IMO, at this point it is not weather so much being in between winter and summer. It's more whether NG usage will increase in other areas, electricity, industries and exports. Hard to tell at this point since coal may be coming back as a competitor.
  • champ: $UGAZ $ERX --- Both of these ETF's are ...still working.....because Oil and N-Gas are both up again today....
  • champ: $ERX --- $UGAZ @ $22.50 up about 14% --- Why ...the simple answer is because N-Gas is up today, about $0.16....this ETF is still bouncing off of that low and back on 2/22 I had a post...but with zig-zags. Helping the energy sector today and WTI-Oil is also bouncing. I had another post today about $ERX and this ETF is bouncing off the YTD low that was on 3/27 @ $29
  • rck89: @champ $ERX $UGAZ So where are oil / gas prices going? Nobody knows, so at best these are trading vehicles that are dependent on weather and OPEC headlines! Unfortunately, I own $UGAZ at higher prices so I'm hoping for a long, hot Summer!
  • champ: @rck89 $ERX $UGAZ ----- Inventory numbers...also kick these ETF's around...the WTI Oil #API numbers will be released at 16.30 ET today ....in about 75 minutes from now.
  • rck89: @champ @stevef214 @Robert1965 @Esther and others $UGAZ Thanks for your thoughtful comments yesterday on $UGAZ...very helpful and much appreciated!
  • champ: $UGAZ ...had a small draw of -43 bcf and inventory #'s are less than last year....
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ Thanks for the update, looks like it is holding, 21.50, I sold yesterday, at that, any thoughts
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ up 6% 21.47, @champ had trade near the low 13.66, nice call, still holding a 100 share lot of 14.07, selling today, any thoughts
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ sold at 21.50
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ --- My thoughts are...you asked....just like your trade worked out...buy low and sell high...small positions and trade around the core.....good work.
  • stevef214: $UNG $UGAZ $CHK All up again today. $CHK making its move along with NG and a recent bullish view from Wunderlich. The recent move in oil is also helping.
  • rck89: $UGAZ - Anyone have a long range weather report, insight into tomorrow's nat gas report or other info that would explain the up move in $UGAZ this a.m.? Thanks.
  • champ: @rck89 $UGAZ ---- Still moving up off the low...I had a post around 2/22 ....could be a seasonal bounce, that sometime happens around April.....look at the chart but it didn't really happen the last 2-years.
  • stevef214: @rck89 $UGAZ I am thinking that the recent move up in NG is not due to weather anymore, at least not depending on cold weather resulting in heating because first we are now the winter season is over and secondly recent temperatures have been average to slightly above. I posted that the last storage report showed a large draw down. this could have been due to two weeks ago temperatures were below average. The recent move up may now be anticipation of general usage rising, summer weather and export levels. Technicals show NG has moved above some resistance and is now at $3.16/bcf, if it can clear $3.20 it has a clear shot to $3.40.
  • Robert1965: @stevef214 $UGAZ Thanks
  • champ: @rck89 @stevef214 $UGAZ --- You are right it's about the inventory levels...not really the chart...the N-Gas traders are betting RHRN that the inventory report in the morning at 10:30ET, will show another draw....if you believe that is going to be correct place your bets....long or short....that is what... is happening RHRN ....is my guess.
  • Esther: @rck89 $UGAZ I thought I posted this but am not seeing it. Apologies if it is a double post. John Kemp sent out a note a day or two ago hat U.S. natural gas prices for summer 2017 have risen sharply relative to summer 2018 as the market moves to reduce power burn and conserve gas stocks. The calendar spread from Jun 2017 to June 2018 has tightened from a backwardation of 9 cents per million BTUs on Feb 22 to 34 cents on Mar 27. You can get added to his list by sending an email to john.kemp@tr.com. (It is always nice to tell a reporter how much you appreciate their work, as well.)
  • Esther: @stevef214 $UNG $UGAZ $CHK and Stifel also raised to a buy, I looked at this yesterday and was tempted to take a position but I am trying very hard to limit my risk and become a better investor and I already own $RICE. I was a little spooked by Morningstar's Fair Value Estimate which is $2!! But now I am regretting not going with my gut.
  • stevef214: @champ $CHK $UGAZ $DVN Director Archie Dunham just file form 4 and he bought 500K shares. This is significant IMO. Still looking to add and I added some yesterday.
  • champ: @stevef214 $CHK ----3 Directors each bought 50,000 shares...from $5.22 - $5.42.....all under water for now but that is really positive for the stock moving forward. $UGAZ has been working but all the N-Gas stocks are not really working at this time....but they will at some point.....$DVN is one ...thats down but their are many.
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ Need some help Bought on open 17.88, and 18.08, have stop set 17.47, should I just get out
  • JBed: @Robert1965 $UGAZ Is this for a day trade or longer hold? You don't say how big your position is. I wouldn't sell here as it looks like the price is going up. You might want to move your stop up if you're nervous.
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ - If you were to look at a 5 minute chart...on the price of N-Gas and this ETF...they are streaming together.... all of us would like to have a crystal ball...but even CEO's and directors don't really know what is going to happen in the energy sector....it's really just an educated guessing game... as we all look for entries.
  • stevef214: $UNG $UGAZ NG gapped up and seems to be holding. I have a bid in to add to $UGAZ. It could fill the gap from 2/21 back up to $19. I am not sure if this is about the recent cold from over the weekend or if this is a forecast expecting more electricity use in the near months to come. anyone have any thoughts?
  • champ: @stevef214 $UNG $UGAZ --- My guess is that it's more about Inventories supplies YoY....and the weather is always in the mix....I'm still holding my position....from that low that I posted about.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UNG $UGAZ You were right to get in near the low under 13.90, what are you looking at to get out,
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UNG $UGAZ ---- Not really babysitting but I will hear an Alerts ....if the price of N-gas drops.
  • champ: $UGAZ @ $15 but still zig-zagging....sticking it's head above ground now...the price of N-Gas is climbing a little this morning....still holding my position....for now.
  • champ: @maratom71 $UGAZ ---- I'm still holding a small position....ATL... and I really have know clue about directions....might have to cut this trade loose...?
  • stevef214: @champ $UGAZ up decent today. I wanted to add yesterday on the dip but missed it. I am thinking now wait for it to clear the 2/21 high of $15.91 which would put it up into the gap. Reading NG is oversold and it should rise for a bit. With the winter so warm now the thoughts are its going to cause a warm summer and NG will be used for more electricity for air conditioning. What's your thoughts on adding?
  • champ: $UGAZ @ $15.15 --- This N-Gas ETF is also still hanging around this level....but zig-zagging along with everything else. The ATL was $13.74 ...and it has now bounce about $2 in the last couple of days. N-Gas really needs more news on demand...and inventory levels are lower and has been slowly dropping y/y ....they just reported. No real clue on direction but I'm still holding my new position ...that I posted about a couple days ago. On regulation... they did report news on some coal regulations that they eliminate this week. N-Gas, Oil and refiners news should be coming, maybe as early as next week.
  • champ: @stevef214 $UGAZ ---- You asked....my thoughts are real simple....the only thing that really matters on this ETF ...is the price of N-Gas and demand....I think it's really only that simple...the chart doesn't matter IMO.
  • champ: $UGAZ moving up a little
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ Did you ever place a stop on your trade
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ ---- I don't have a trailing stop at this point....my entry was near the low....and my position size is only 1/2 size now.... because I banked a nice profits on the other 1/2...but I always have a safety stop at or near entry on new trades....I want to see what happens on the open on Monday....now that I have profits....I will be trying ...to slowly build a larger position but I don't expect that this trade is going to be easy... it's all about the weather and the price of N-Gas...for now....next N-Gas inventory #'s ....as you know...are not until 3/1 next Thursday.....so that might give me a little time to play around with a new entry....however, I might have to sell on the open.
  • Henry: $UGAZ My son, who only recently got interested in stocks, decided from stocktwits that UGAZ was his stock. He bought at $25 in change. I convinced him to sell at a $7 loss. He neither had time nor Internet access to manage this beast. It was an inexpensive lesson compared to my stock/option education.
  • champ: $UGAZ up $1.17 in the PM ...bouncing off the low on volume this morning...I posted info yesterday...and I'm still holding my position.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ I got some at the close, where did you place the stop, I have it at 13.87
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ ---- No stop at this point...I'm looking to add. I was expecting N-Gas to be up this morning.....I will be babysitting for awhile... on the open.
  • Kjksm1: @champ $UGAZ what is your price target?
  • Robert1965: @Robert1965 $UGAZ Just sold at 15.09
  • champ: @Kjksm1 $UGAZ ....Looking to add to my Starter....I'm on the fly ....no real price....at this point....for my add.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ I guess I will have to look for a re-entry, I sold when I saw .50 drop
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ ---- You know we will be getting N-Gas #'s this morning at 10.30 ET....this is a Spec trade because the markets will be getting News this morning on Oil also @ 11:00 ET ....Spec....Spec....no clue here.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ Yes but information site doesn't up date on time the move is already done. I got back in 14.62, right before the release, now it is sitting at 15.00, high was15.19, prior to the release the high was 15.17, I don't see much upside, what do you think, wrong again just hit HD 15.51
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ ---- Looks good to me ....I'm still holding my swing position....for now....I did not add.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ I sold the 14.62 shares just recently at 15.09
  • champ: $UGAZ @ $14.60- I have a Spec swing position and I'm watching closely now as it is now bouncing off a 5 year low...could even be a 20 year low....or #ATL can't really tell ..@ $13.78....don't really know about direction but I'm guessing that N-Gas can't go too much lower....??
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ, Natural gas when are inventory figures released
  • maratom71: @Robert1965 $UGAZ Every Thursday @ 10-30 ET, You can go to, eia.gov, to see the figures. Hope this helps.
  • Robert1965: @maratom71 $UGAZ Thanks
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ What happened at 12:18 it jumped 29.09 to 29.40, at 12:30 $30.29, ?
  • maratom71: @stevef214 $UGAZ Thanks, Just realized that reports are a week behind, and sold my $UGAZ, before it jumped $2.
  • maratom71: @SMM $UGAZ Is anyone on this?
  • Kid2old: @maratom71 $UGAZ Yes , small position yesterday, watching now, stop around 29.20.
  • cmac: @maratom71 $UGAZ I've been building small position since the new year drop....still underwater on it, but am following Dan Dicker's lead and will stick with it
  • maratom71: @Kid2old@cmac $UGAZ Thanks for your input. Small position.
  • Kid2old: @maratom71 $UGAZ I am out at 29.20. I will look for re-entry on a green bar on 15 min chart.
  • rck89: @maratom71 $UGAZ Yes I am this ETF, but I've had only a "spotty" success trading it over the past several years. $UGAZ trades on actual and expected nat gas pricing. As best I can determine, weather - really hot or really cold - is the other determinate of nat gas pricing. I can't tell you how far in advance that this ETF discounts these pricing expectations. Usually, by the time I see bad weather here in Chicago, the stock has already moved. So if you have any penchant for longer term weather predictions, you can probably make money in this stock. I've only made money in this puppy on a day trading basis. But I keep trying but with very small positions.
  • maratom71: @rck89 $UGAZ Thanks @rck89, for you dealings with this. The only way, this has worked for me, is to monitor the previous low, and take it from there. Am not in a big position, but still profitable. On this episode, bought @27.30, and it still went to $24.86, before turning up. Have page with Weather underground.com that shows National weather conditions, as a guide, and a 6 day forecast. Hope this helps.
  • maratom71: @rck89 @Kid2old @cmac $UGAZ Check out after market pricing. This may cure some pain!
  • bigbartabs: $UNG $UGAZ ... Every time I see ticker UNG, I think of a good friend of mine (that used to fly F4s in the Air Force)... who once told me... "if you are ever about to get a divorce, and need to lose money fast... trade natural gas."
  • indigo1948: @bigbartabs $UNG $UGAZ - great comment - have done that and been there when I regularly traded futures - there is a certain allure to Nat Gas for futures traders- unfortunately that allure does not always translate into profits - the movements are wicked.
  • stevef214: @bigbartabs $UNG $UGAZ Yep, I am learning that. These ETF's are inefficient because they need to roll out their futures contracts each month. I think Dan Dicker has it right. Play NG with $LNG. Its going up while $UNG is going down and should make money as long as US NG is priced lower than rest of world which is a good bet.
  • bigbartabs: @stevef214 $UNG $UGAZ $LNG ... yes, caution for sure. When we get big spikes up and down, and it settles with a green candle... I will sometimes take a little for a trade. But more times than not... even with a small position... its like riding the electric bull at the fair.
  • maratom71: @champ $UGAZ Do You know the N-Gas numbers?
  • maratom71: $UGAZ low of $26.79
  • cmac: @stevef214 $UNG Thanks for the update. Nice volume building in $UNG. Bounce right at the 200sma. I may add to $UGAZ, but seeing how it closes. Going to get cold in new england over the weekend, so I'm short term bullish.
  • shoredriver: $UGAZ....ouch.....np
  • Henry: @shoredriver $UGAZ When did summer get here?
  • shoredriver: @Henry $UGAZ there is still plenty of snow on my beach....
  • Tony220397: @shoredriver $UGAZ this week's storage prediction is bearish -68Bcf for last week, plus persisting warmer forecasting for wks after1/14 before polar vortex hit us on Wed or Thur. So , everyone included the pros and computer model are guessing!
  • champ: $UGAZ --- Back in on the News of one of the largest draws in a long time....and inventory stocks are now lower than they were last yea.....but no real clue on where this stock is going....you just never know with this ETF....this news was expected and this ETF started climbing on 12/23.
  • champ: @champ $UGAZ ----Stop OUT right below entry ....for a small....only watching now.
  • champ: $USO $UGAZ ---- WTI Oil is still sitting on this 17 month hi and is up $0.39 RHRN...and N-Gas is at a new 52 week hi also @ $3.848 RHRN ....everything is just find in the energy sector but traders are very nervous....in ALL the markets today...and it's really for know real reason.....other than the #Unknown in stock prices....they just don't know what to do... on this low volume day...the Sky is falling....so... I must sell.....but the News Flow is still good at this point.....other than traders are taking some profits on this low volume day and their is really no buyer left at home right now.... they are in Cabo San Lucas where the hi will be 80 today..... or wherever. Thats what I did... for 10 days every year at this same time...for over 20 years...golfing and fishing.
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ Up 12%, steady climb from open 46.30, no gap in premarket, anyone trading this, in at 47.00 out at 49.57 now at 52.05
  • stevef214: @Robert1965 $UGAZ I am long March UNG call and plan on holding through the new year into mid/late winter. $UNG is now at a yearly high and both are completing inverse H&S patterns.
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ -- Yes, N-Gas is up another $0.05 since my last post 25 minutes ago...should top out but I have been thinking about that all day...and it keeps climbing ....but for the day... it should be just about over with.
  • stevef214: @champ $UGAZ $CHK I am really surprised with the move up of NG today that CHK fell so much, down 5% as of now.
  • Robert1965: @champ $UGAZ , Yes, watching it drop now your right on the button, was around 52.30 when you posted now 51.57
  • champ: @stevef214 $UGAZ $CHK --- I'm also surprised but all of the energy names are really holds.... unless you are a trader....then you would be selling also. This stock has a lot of shares out there. The surprising part is... that Oil and N-Gas is doing really well today but all the stocks in the sector are dropping....because Traders and Investors are taking profits.
  • Robert1965: @champ $LABU $IONS $CLVS $UGAZ $ETE $BAC, sorry High of the Year
  • champ: @Robert1965 $LABU $IONS $CLVS $UGAZ $ETE $BAC..... YTDH
  • rck89: $UGAZ - anyone know how to trade this natural gas ETF which tracks natural gas prices? Weather is one of the biggest determinants of nat gas prices. And the stock seems to move with advanced weather forecasts. But I still always seem to be on the wrong side of this one! Any thoughts?
  • maratom71: @rck89 $UGAZ This is tricky! Although colder weather has been predicted, is reached $42.88 on Thursday, then fell back to $38.78 at the end of the day. Go FIGURE. NP, but watching. Just when You think You've got a winner, the bottom falls out. LOL hope this helps.
  • maratom71: @rck89 $UGAZ Look at Tues @ 10:05, $3256, that's the kind of pullback that needs to be bought, to make the $$$$.
  • rck89: @maratom71 $UGAZ This is certainly a short trading vehicle that I had some modest success with in the past. As I remember, I'd buy it based on weather predictions looking out a couple of days (or weeks). Not very scientific. But alas, I I've lost my touch with this one, so I'm looking for new trading strategies for $UGAZ. Thanks for your thoughts!
  • Robert1965: $UGAZ, in today at 42.87, out just now 44.90
  • champ: @Robert1965 $UGAZ --- Still holding...1/2 but I could be out at anytime.
  • rck89: @Robert1965 @champ $UGAZ - So is just a day trading stock, or do you plan your trades based on???
  • champ: @rck89 $UGAZ ---For me this is just a Day Trading ETF at this level ....when it was in the $20's I would swing maybe 10-15% of my position....but not at this level...most all ETF's are Day Trades for me ...No real plan... I just watch N-Gas and Inventory levels.
  • rck89: @champ $UGAZ When are inventory level announce? I just catch them sporadically on CNBC.
  • champ: @rck89 $UGAZ --- Every Thursday morning at 10:30 ET.
  • Robert1965: @rck89 $UGAZ I was trying to buy it the other day the last attempt was 37.17, but didn't get filled, didn't want to chase it. I watched the premarket, failed to get a fill, then lucky to fill when it started up, just enter sell price of 44.90. The reason was the draw on Natural Gas the market didn't react, until a day after, 42.xx to 40.xx, the day of the announcement, prior days 32.xx to 37.xx, if it wasn't for the holiday week, I would have chased it the other day, bought more today, and took half off, like champ.
  • Tony220397: @champ $UGAZ Rig count come on 1pm ET, I bet it will be up!
  • champ: @Tony220397 $UGAZ ---- I was just posting on the rig count and my guess is we could be up another 10 rigs or so.
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Stock Price $USD 11.73
Change -1.84%
Volume 5,608,890

The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times the performance of the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index.

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