Morning Market Update

Good morning. Futures are pretty flat this morning, which should not really be a surprise. Overbought conditions rarely resolve themselves in a straight line. Instead, a brief bout of selling will typically be met with some dip buyers. The subsequent move reveals the underlying capitalization of these buyers. Is it high enough to soak up all the supply and then push the price to new highs before all the demand is satiated? Or is the supply of profit taking great enough to fill all the demand…and then some!!

So these little pauses in pullbacks are extremely important for a trader to study because they provide a window into the underlying dynamics of trading behavior. It’s not just a question of drawing lines and then assuming that your pretty little drawing will play out the way you want it to. This is about market psychology; not geometry.

Personally, I think any rally today is likely to be a bull trap. I could be wrong, but I am wary of traps.

If you studied my strategy session last night, you probably learned a few things about trading the intraday action. While nothing is certain, there is a good chance that $TSLA will trade very similarly to yesterday’s price action. I’m looking at $700 as a line in the sand.

Also, you probably know that $NFLX reported disappointing numbers last night. The company picked up 2 million subscribers…but prior guidance was for more. Traders don’t like it when a company misses its own guidance, so the stock is down about 9%. This is one of the residual impacts of COVID — everybody decided to sit home and watch the tube rather than working out and ridding themselves of their inner tube around their midsection. So subscription growth was off the charts last year. Now? Not so much. Also, due to the COVID lock down, production for new content slowed. So basically, there’s nothing compelling for people to watch. Note: This doesn’t apply to me and Jennifer. We rarely watch cable TV anymore and have found a virtual treasure trove of old content that everyone else but us has already watched. In fact, we are members of a small, elite group of media consumers who never watched one single episode of Game of Thrones during the eight seasons that it was in production. Not one show. While this might seem pretty stupid, I didn’t even know what a “Throne” was because I had no context for the title. (When I learned that the series was based on “A Song of Ice and Fire,” I figured that Pat Benatar had written it.)

I was totally indifferent. But after the final season had aired, we binge watched the entire series and probably finished it in about a month. Trust me, it’s a lot better when you binge watch because it just feels like the longest movie in history. It’s the sign of the times — we need instant gratification and nobody wants to wait for anything anymore. Anyway, I digress.

I suspect that you’ll see some kind of lift in $NFLX at the open, but I think the stock is pretty heavy. it’s been trading in a sideways range since last July and the latest high printed a week ago was lower than the January high. Support is at $500, which is where the stock is trading now. But judging by the pre-market trading, I doubt $500 is even going to hold. It’s heavy. Why bother?

OK. That’s all I’ve got. See you in the forum.


Market Update

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