Here’s my take on the vaccine stocks. – January 7, 2022


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I want to look at all of the COVID stocks, I’m sure I am missing some, but I am just talking about the vaccine stuff here to see what’s really happening. Essentially, is there any better buyable or shortable or whatever? Let’s just go through them.

Pfizer ( NYSE: PFE ), still doing well after this kind of a volatility squeeze, but that was back then, this is now. Because this stock is coming down so steeply I think you are going to get some kind of a rebound off of the 50-day moving average. But with respect to whether this is going to turn into a good entry, the thing you have got to remember is, that when a stock has sold off like this has, as steeply as it has, the upside would be questionable without a significant amount of time of consolidation. So I would give this as a kind of a neutral thing. Buy it, definitely don’t short it, but buy it or don’t buy it., I think it’s okay.

Johnson & Johnson ( NYSE: JNJ ) is kind of like the best of the bunch here. The 200-day and the 50-day are both trending higher, price is above both. I wouldn’t be buying this stock either. However, I will say this, if you buy it you are probably going to make some kind of money.

Merck ( NYSE: MRK ), definitely not, thank you very much. BioNTech ( NASDAQ: BNTX ), no, this isn’t working. If anything, the trade here in my view would be, if the stock rebounds here it is a definite short candidate. And then only if the stock then starts pulling back do you short the stock and then you keep your buy stop just slightly above the 200-day moving average.

Remember, the market anticipates things, and so don’t just look at all the data that you are getting on COVID. You cant’ just look at that and say as long as COVID is a thing these stocks are going to continue to go higher. That is just not the way the market works. And so this is a stock ( NASDAQ: BNTX ) where the bloom has definitely come off of this rose. And the only thing that is left is the thorns.

And then finally, you have got Moderna ( NASDAQ: MRNA ), a similar pattern, a very similar pattern. I am looking at Moderna ( NASDAQ: MRNA ) and BioNTech ( NASDAQ: BNTX ) as two stocks that are definite short candidates. Think about it, on these stocks, we are already in, and I’m not being critical at all, at least not this time. Everybody is in jab heaven here or hell, whatever, where it’s like one jab, then another, then another, then another, then another. And so there needs to be more of the cocktail, whatever that is, made.

And so you would think all of these stocks would be doing well. Moderna ( NASDAQ: MRNA ) and BioNTech ( NASDAQ: BNTX ) aren’t, don’t even think about it. Don’t even think about why, just say, these stocks have had a heck of a run for whatever reason and now they are looking really, really toppy, any kind of bounce will do you. That is the way I would trade both of these.

When a stock looks like, on my god, it’s going straight to zero, that is not the time you want to short it. That’s the time you want to be covering the short that you made at a higher level when the stock didn’t look like it was going straight to zero, it just looked like it was breaking down. So you want to wait for these and then after they rally and then start to get weak again, that is when you want to sell these stocks.

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