Here’s your trade on Apple ($AAPL) – March 6, 2023


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Just a quick video here on Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ). An analyst came out, I think it was Goldman but I can’t say for sure, and gave a $200.00 price target on Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ). I can’t say whether that will happen or not, hey, why not, anything could happen, that would be a new high.

They gave their price target, and I am sure there are fundamental reasons for that, fine. The chart doesn’t really support that. However, charts often don’t support things that happen in the future, that’s why they are charts as opposed to crystal balls.

What we are looking at here, though, is this 3-day move. It is kind of a typical 3-day rule. The idea here is, that the first day happened on Thursday, a big move higher on volume. On the second day, even more volume. And then finally, today, we get this gap up on that news that Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) is going to $200.00.

It did not follow through, there was really no push-through at all. It gaps up, runs a bit higher during the day, and then finally tapers off to where people that bought today are kind of wondering, why did I buy today because I am losing money on a stock that just got an upgrade of 33 percent from where it was.

What I would expect Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) to do, at this point is, do some backing and filling. I would not be interested in buying this stock now. I think this is the price range. There are two entries that I think are worth taking if you are an “Appleonian”.

The first one is, if it does pull back to test the 50, that’s when you could start a position. Absolutely not here, don’t even think about it. This is also why, if you are buying here you are risking the stock going all the way back down, so where do you put your stop, down there?

If instead, you say, I like Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) but I am going to wait to buy on the breakout. That is actually an easier trade because the only reason you are buying is that you think the stock is going to continue higher. Therefore, you put your stop right down here and the only way your stop will be hit is if you are wrong.

Now personally, I think in this market you have a greater chance of being wrong if you are buying a breakout. Because these breakouts haven’t been working lately, there is a lot of sell-into strength.

If however, you wait to buy on a pullback, then your chances of making money are better for the simple fact the stock has been trading in a box. So you want to buy it at the bottom of the box and then sell it up at the top of the box. So that is how I would trade Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL ).

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