Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX)

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  • woodman: $ARDX - move back above 8dEMA off the 200d after a big pullback following the appellate court oral argument on 9/25. Purportedly, CMS's attorneys filed a letter with the Court of Appeals withdrawing one of its argued positions, which some believe weakens CMS's arguement and could be cause for reversal of the district court's decision. I haven't looked into this myself, so I don't have an opinion on that, but looking at the chart, I suppose it could move higher with this move back above the 8dEMA. I may take a position, but I want to see it stay above the 8dEMA. All fwiw.
  • Clanker: @woodman $ARDX Thank you
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX thanks for the update. Still holding.
  • fiebs: @woodman $ARDX $AVXL Anything new on $ARDX? Down at the 200MA, considering a starter position. I am in $ARDX, another biotech. They are making good progress against Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases.
  • woodman: $ARDX oral argument occurred this morning in the US Court of Appeals for the Washington DC Circuit. ARDX's attroney was peppered and argued for much longer than CMS's attorney. ARDX's attorney was skilled and a better presenter than CMS's attorney, but I still think ARDX loses. But who knows. I'd expect a decision by year's end or so. If the decision is in ARDX's favor, the stock will jump mightily. I sold all my shares on 9/17 and currently have no shares.
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX I have 10 puts . Oct 17 - 7 strike . Up 20 % so far . Bought them just for the hell of it based on your prior thoughts weeks ago . Sounds like I need to ring the register if it’s gonna take till end of year .
  • ThomasP: @woodman $ARDX Thanks Looking to buy on a little strength: weekly high & 8,21 DMAs close together
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX thanks for the update, I remembered today was the day, but didn't know if the verdict would be released today as well. Trimmed some and still holding a bunch with a much lower cost basis. It's down from a couple of weeks ago and might hold this $6 level and bounce. We shall see.
  • woodman: $ARDX - I'm out of this one as the party may be over for now with the 9/25 oral argument in its appeal in the case it lost against CMS in the lower court comimg closer. What the panel of 3 judges will ask/say during the oral argument, no one knows at ...
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX thanks for the commentary. I still have original shares purchased with low-cost basis since I didn't sell all when it was up in the $9 range early 2024, so glad to have a 2nd chance even at this level. Right now it's sitting on the 21d, am watching to see if it can bounce a little before selling a bunch before the 25th.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - And, heck, if invstors, traders, analysts, etc., percieve the court's comments during oral argument as positive, this stock may fly higher. I just don't want to be in it for a potential binary event. So, while I'm out now, as we get closer, I will reevaluate to see if I do want to buy back any shares to roll the dice with them. Unlikely, but we'll see.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - One other thing. ARDX is already underpriced. If things go bad and it drops more, it will be even more underpriced. We know this because ARDX already has impressive Ibsrela sales that continue to grow. It's peak sales alone merit a higher stock price. Xphozah Medicare sales would simply make it even more valuable, but the stock is worth buying for Ibsrela and meager Xphozah sales alone.
  • woodman: $ARDX - has been one of my largest positions post earnings. It continues right up the 8dEMA. Oral argument on its legal appeal, which I've discussed previously, is on 9/25. I will likely lighten up significantly for that, even though the court won't issue an opinion that day nor for a couple or few months, probably. But the judges could say something that spooks tea leaf readers and prognosticators.
  • woodman: $ARDX - late-day run. 5-8dEMA support. Long a hefty position going into the oral argument on its appeal. I will lighten up before then.
  • woodman: $ARDX has been rolling! It's hitting the health conferences this and next week. Analysts are positive and increasing price targets. It should be a good couple weeks for this one. Oral argument in its court of appeals of the bundling decision by CMS is later this month (9/25). Whether any hints will be given by the panel of judges is anyone's guess. The analyses I've seen aren't pricing in a successful appeal, which is good IMO. All in all, I think this contiues up this month, at least until the oral argument (all bets off for that).
  • Lou: $ALNY is in beast mode! Up considerably but it's still well undervalued IMO. Extremely profitable and terrifically managed. Only discipline keeps me from adding. Thanks to all who mentioned my calling this board's attention to $FTI. I added a tiny bit to my large $BA position. Couldn't resist the drop this morning. Now way overfull in $ARDX and carrying a gain that's making me think about trimming.
  • woodman: @Lou $ALNY $FTI $BA $ARDX - I think ARDX continues higher this month and after this month, except for possible gyrations around the 9/25 oral argument on its appeal in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. Of course, there's no saying when the Court of Appeals will issue its decision, and if it affirms the lower court, it will pullback even though ARDX's own estimates and those of many anaylsts are essentially not counting Xphozah sales at all or minimally. Ibsrela sales are very good and keep getting better.
  • woodman: $ARDX - I didn't listen to the Citi Healthcare conference, but here are some notes I saw:

    "-The Ibsrela growth we saw in Q2 is only increasing
    -The IBS market is growing annually but without any growth we would still hit our $1B target
    -Other ...
  • woodman: $ARDX unfazed.
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX liking this slow and steady move up.
  • woodman: $ARDX updates: - It will attend multiple health care conferences (with one on ones) in the first two weeks of September. I don't know if there will be news. I'm not expecting news per se, but rather continued positive commentary on tenapanor sales. We'll see. - Scripts for Ibsrela appear to continue to be strong overall, and Xphozah (in the non-Medicare arena) at the high of its channel on a 4-week basis. - Oral argument is 9/25 for ARDX's appeal of the Medicare bundling decision for Xphozah. How that goes - and whether we'll even be able to draw anything useful from it - is anyone's guess.
  • woodman: $ARDX continues up. See my post from yesterday for more content on what's happening currently.
  • Lou: ...
    My other high conviction holdings, now quite large positions that are well in the green are $ALNY $BA $ARDX $FTI $FROG (thanks @Scottrades), and $WELL. Lots of OTM short puts in $BA $FROG, some in $WELL, and a recent new stock position in $SRPT. Tw ...
  • Lou: @Lou $ET $EPD $MPLX $ALNY $BA $ARDX $FTI $FROG $WELL $SRPT $HUMA $DBRG $CAVA $WLDN Omitted my $VKTX (and short puts) and a relatively small position in $FIG.
  • woodman: $ARDX has been a good soldier, marching slowly and silently up the mountain. On September 25, the Washington DC Circuirt Court of Appeals will hold oral argument in ARDX's appeal of the lower court's decision that found in favor of defendant CMS with ...
  • woodman: $ARDX up through $6.
  • woodman: Biotech - I'm long 3: $ARDX $VKTX $SRPT.
    $ARDX - Ibsrela (tenapanor for IBS-C) selling very well and growing. It alone merits a higher share price. Xphozah (tenapanor for hyperphosphatemia) is gravy on top for now, but If Xphozah litigation is resolv ...
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX had a good ER and been creeping up slowly. Still have a large original core position, only regret is I didn't add on the May bottoming. Now above all major MVA's, with the 8d and 21d crossing over the 200d on the last week. Looking good.
  • woodman: $ARDX continues its ascent. It has moved past the 5.60s-5.70s resistance area. Next stop, if it the move continues, looks to be around the 6.50 area. Long ARDX.
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX liking it.
  • camaro69: $ARDX HOD
  • woodman: $ARDX hitting resistance now, but has been moving up decently, particularly since reporting on 8/4. Ibsrela (tenapanor for the GI condition IBS-C) sales have been great and are projected to continue to be great.

    Xphozah (tenapanor for hyperphosphate ...
  • joelsg1: @woodman $ARDX What do you think of $XERS, if anything?
  • woodman: @joelsg1 $ARDX $XERS - I'm no help with that one. I'd need to look into it.
  • joelsg1: @woodman $ARDX $XERS Rev Shark special.
  • woodman: @joelsg1 $ARDX $XERS - So was $HUMA.
  • Mikev200: @woodman $ARDX $XERS $HUMA Best 2025 pick!....but that was then.
  • woodman: $VKTX $ARDX - my biotech footprint is very light these days. These two are the only ones I have.
  • kenb: $ARDX taking off after earnings. Up almost 25%.
  • kenb: $ARDX reports after close. Past two ER's have not been good with 12% and 24% drops. Still holding some shares and other than earnings and sales, looking for any announcements on changing strategy to open markets for their products.
  • woodman: $ARDX blowing the roof off. Ibsrela sales are very good.
  • Geewhiz: @woodman $ARDX Cave in ;-). Sold small part of my position today as prudence. A lot left. Bought at 2.30 thanks to you. @woodman
  • woodman: @Geewhiz $ARDX - I wonder if it will stick, or suffer the post-biotech-pop/post-reporting malaise.
  • Geewhiz: @woodman $ARDX Sold some at 4.94 five minutes ago
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX looks like a lot of memory in that 5-5.50 range . I hate to chase it .
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX - And 200d at $4.87. And it's biotech. I wouldn't chase it.
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX nice ER, glad I still have some shares left. Hitting the 200d from below, with all the shorter MVA's starting to curl upward.
  • woodman: $ARDX continues to move higher into earnings anticipated in early August.
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX big insider buy back in June . I missed this latest move . Should we chase ? Oral arguments on court case in Sept . Pt of 8 looks 5 is next stop
  • woodman: $ARDX seems to be doing what it often does before earnings: running-up on hope of something very positive being announced when it reports. A buyout, a partnership, huge Ibsrela sales to replace depressed Xphozah sales because of the Medicare bundling in which the company refuses to participate, tea-leaf reading pointing to something good happening with its lawsuit against CMS (btw, oral argument on its appeal is scheduled for late September). Usually, those hopes are dashed, but who knows what will happen this time. Regardless, the run-up is real and ridable. Earnings are expected in early August.
  • Geewhiz: $ARDX on the move. Keeping a short leash.
  • woodman: @Geewhiz $ARDX - Hard to say if the run-up is because of the $UNCY CRL (non-approval by FDA, which told them to fix some manufacturing/labeling issues) - UNCY's binder is a potential competetor to ARDX's Xphozah - or it's simply the often-seen run-up that happens whenever ARDX is nearing its quarterly reporting (estimated around 8/1). If the latter, disappointments in reporting tend to nullify (or worse) the pre-reporting run-up.
  • Geewhiz: @woodman $ARDX $UNCY Thanks again for all you do in this forum. Hope your golf is better than mine.
  • kenb: $ARDX saw the post below about this biotech coming alive, and just got a SA alert on the subject to share. Still holding a good position. "Ardelyx spike attributed to Xphozah legal update" Can't read the article since it's behind a paywall, and checked their Investor Relations webpage but no mention.
  • Geewhiz: @kenb $ARDX @woodman had this take on the subject, Hard to say if the run-up is because of the $UNCY CRL (non-approval by FDA, which told them to fix some manufacturing/labeling issues) - UNCY's binder is a potential competetor to ARDX's Xphozah - or it's simply the often-seen run-up that happens whenever ARDX is nearing its quarterly reporting (estimated around 8/1). If the latter, disappointments in reporting tend to nullify (or worse) the pre-reporting run-up. He's good at this.
  • woodman: @kenb @Geewhiz $ARDX - I've been away all afternoon and just seeing your posts. The legal news today, I think, is that an oral argument date has been set for Sept 25 on ARDX's appeal of the lower court decesion that ruled in favor of CMS and against ARDX on the Medicare bundling issue affecting Xphozah. Some analyst views this as a hidden call option. I am less confident that the court of appeals will overturn the district court judge, but it could happen. If the court of apppeals overturns the district court or if for some reason CMS captiulates (I don't know why it would unless someone in the Administration wants that to happen), ARDX will shoot up big time.
  • camaro69: $ARDX HOD
  • MongosPawn: @camaro69 $ARDX Bumping up against resistance. Hoping it can breakthrough someday. Long.
  • camaro69: $ARDX @woodman Revenues up, profits down. wondering your thoughts. I held a very small position
  • woodman: @camaro69 $ARDX - Not a lot of thoughts on it because I'm out of the loop. I'm no longer in it after the Medicare bundling fiasco (regarding Xphozah, which is a good drug but getting screwed because of bundling). The company sued CMS over the bundlin ...
  • camaro69: @woodman $ARDX Thanks for your insight!
  • woodman: @DavidG $HUMA - The FDA screwed $ARDX with a Complete Response Letter (CRL), making them run another needless trial that cost the company masive extra expense and additional years to the approval finish line. The CRL absolutely crushed the stock. There is reason to believe one of the key FDA regulators in bringing about the CRL, who had a cozy relationship with Pfizer (maker of phosphorus binders, and hence in competition with ARDX), unethically/illegally tanked ARDX.
  • Lou: $ARDX ????
  • GlassHalfFull: @woodman $ARDX what is PT?
  • woodman: @Lou $ARDX - PT (price target) $14 by BTIG, fwiw.
    Buy-$14, say "we highlight the recent pullback in $ARDX shares post-earnings as an attractive entry point, as Ibsrela and Xphozah continue to build momentum in large market opportunities ($1.75B peak ...
  • stairm01: @GlassHalfFull $ARDX Price Target
  • woodman: $ARDX - sold all but my longest term shares (in accounts I hardly look at) this morning. The conference call was uninspirational and lacked a lot of things I was hoping to hear. I see no near or even intermdiate term catalysts. Ibsrela sales are good ...
  • joelsg1: @woodman $ARDX Agree, but I'm long granddaddy $AMGN which has learned if they can't beat the biosimilars, join and exceed them.
  • kenb: $ARDX ER. down about 3% pre-market -- Revenue: Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 , was $333.6 million , compared to $124.5 million in total revenue in 2023, driven by increases in net product sales revenue. -- IBSRELA U.S. net product sales revenue was $158.3 million , compared to $80.1 million in 2023. -- XPHOZAH U.S. net product sales revenue was $160.9 million , compared to $2.5 million in 2023.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - good numbers, but this stock ran so much before earnings. Before it ran pre-earnings, around $6.50 was what I thought it would run to *after* it reported. Instead, it front-ran the earnings, setting up for a sell the news. I've seen this so many times with biotech.
  • woodman: $ARDX moving ahead of earnings 2/20 bmo. Expecations are high for tenapanor sales, including better tenapanor/Xphozah (for high phosphorous) sales than previously expected even in a Medicare bundling world. Japan use of Xphozah is going extremely well. Also, there are a few new trials for tenapanor/Ibsrela for constipation arising from other afflictions besides IBS-C. This would broaden the market for Ibsrela, whichis is going well for IBS-C patients. One other thing I've read is a possible "surprise" to be announced by the company when it reports. Could be nothing but baseless chatter, though perhaps what is moving the stock this morning. I've continued to hold a decent sized position in in very long accounts, and have been buying back (after selling some time ago) in short/intermediate term accounts for earnings.
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX still holding right there with you.
  • woodman: $ARDX still running. HOD.
  • MongosPawn: @kenb $ARDX Me too. Bought back months ago. Long again.
  • stairm01: @DavidK $ADRX Would that be $ARDX?
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX - I think tenapanor earnings/sales will be better than expected in this new Medicare oral-kindey med bundling universe that is curtailing tenapanor sales - specifically Xphozah for hyperphosphatemia. I think Xphozah sales will be better than expected and Ibsrela (for IBS-C) will be strong. Both are tenapanor.
  • woodman: @woodman $ARDX China news or some info about Europe could help, too.
  • DavidK: @stairm01 $ADRX $ARDX yes my bad
  • DavidK: $ARDX- Woodman , looks like it is trying to chew thru all that memory just below 6. I picked up 500 shares last week around 5.50 or so .
  • woodman: $ARDX - Director David Mott continues to buy in $1 million chunks. http://openinsider.com/search?q=ardx
  • woodman: $ARDX - Mott's third such buy over last 2 months. http://openinsider.com/insider/Mott-David-M/1219871
  • Geewhiz: @woodman $ARDX If only Nancy would buy $ARDX
  • woodman: @Geewhiz $ARDX - Funny thing, she's not even the most proficient congressional inside trader. There are others who are better.
  • woodman: @Geewhiz - Biotech has sucked for a long time. Pharma has mostly sucked, too. There have been a few that have worked okay, but bad on the whole. And there's more uncertainty coming with this Administration, at many different levels. I don't think biotech and Big Pharma CEOs know what to think right now. I've been staying away and don't see any reason to get back in currently. I do still have a long term $ARDX position that I'm just sitting on, but otherwise, I'm essentially staying away.
  • woodman: $ARDX continues to rise after an encouraging report at JPM health care conference on Ibsrela sales (due to have peak sales over $1 billion) and even Xphozah sales (looking at maybe $750 million of private payer sales) despite Medicare bundling (affecting about 60% of total potential sales) now in effect until either Congress or the DC Circurit Court of Appeals saves them (I make no wagers on that conundrum). It is quickly approaching the overhead 200d for a test of that potential resistance. This is a 40% move of the double bottom (11/11/24 and 12/18/24). I remain long in long term accounts.
  • gswwired: $ardx Up 15% on their sales announcement
  • woodman: $ARDX - company update: IBSRELA® (tenapanor) records approximately $158 million in net product sales revenue in 2024 full-year 2025 U.S. net product sales revenue for IBSRELA to be between $240.0 and $250.0 million Strong XPHOZAH® (tenapanor) performance continues, recording approximately $161 million net product sales revenue during 2024 Company reaffirms peak U.S. net IBSRELA sales revenue of greater than $1 Billion Company announces peak U.S. net XPHOZAH sales revenue of $750 million [which is only 40% of potential sales if the Medicare bundling issue - representing about 60% of Xphozah sales - is ultimately resolved] Company finishes 2024 with approximately $250 million in cash
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX saw the news headline . On another note , $AUPH getting sold . Texted my retired pharma friend who has a buddy that works for $AUPH and he stated he knows of no bad info . As I previously stated a few weeks ago , there was big insider buy at 8.89 or so and half the sales force was laid off / fired whatever . Buddy thinks it’s a buyout coming . But as you stated , insider buying on that news would be illegal . I don’t know the laws on that as many insiders buy / sell when they know the internal situation of the company . Anyway I am holding
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX well, that price pop was short lived in this market.
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX $AUPH - Thanks for that update. Insider buys can be legal even if prior to major news events if they follow the SEC rules on pre-planned buys. But I'm not sure if those buys look like pre-planned ones. I also don't know how far in advance a transaction may fall in some kind of safe harbor, if that's even a thing. My knowledge of the SEC rules for this stuff is poor. If anyone understands this, please comment. Thanks. Did your buddy speculate on the timing of any such buyout?
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - It's the same ole Biotech routine for all the traders: sell the news; sell the pops.
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX $AUPH no he didn’t say and I texted him again today but haven’t heard back yet . He did buy the April 10 calls a few weeks ago so he is thinking before then. Will update if he responds . Last update from him was about week ago .
  • woodman: @DavidK $ARDX $AUPH - Ok, thanks.
  • DavidK: @woodman $ARDX $AUPH he just texted and all he said was it’s tough for small caps with higher rates. I asked him any update blah blah but he hast responded yet .
  • DavidK: $ARDX- I picked up another 1000 shares this am when it sold back down . How high will it go ? Short term trade for me . Lots of memory in the charts just below 6 .
  • MongosPawn: @DavidK $ARDX Added some on the bounce as well.
  • kenb: $ARDX frisky today, up 6% on no news.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX - I can't find any either.
  • woodman: @kenb $ARDX https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations
  • kenb: @woodman $ARDX yeah, saw that announced yesterday, but I didn't think it would cause much of a reaction since they present all the time. The only positive my feeble mind can come up with is they get more visibility and generate interest into what their products can offer, and might announce some new clinical results. Anyway, liking to see some green in this down market today.
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Stock Price $7.76
Change 14.96%
Volume 15,785,600

Ardelyx Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development & commercialization of non-systemic, small molecule therapeutics that work in the gastrointestinal tract to treat cardio-renal & metabolic diseases.

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