Here is the long and the short of Apple (AAPL) (September 30, 2015)
AAPL
Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), big selloff here, support right at 108.00. Here’s the deal, Tim Cook announced that they had RECORD sales on their last iPhone. It was way more than the iPhone 6, the original one sold. It sounds really great except this time they kind of added China. I think that there were more than five or six of those people over in China that wanted the new iPhone. So the numbers were fake numbers (as far as what it meant for the popularity of the product). My point is this, the stock is still trading down. It was up today, but for cryin’ out loud, so was everything else, it’s window dressing. But look at the price action, here it is on a 5-minute chart, the stock gaps up today, trades up, trades down. Ultimately though, there was no follow through to the upside.
As I look at it, a distribution day. It was a distribution day on a day when stocks were generally trending much higher, because this is a lot of times what happens on the last day of the month; it’s called window dressing. Money managers are protecting their stocks. They’re buying them, hedge funds are doing this. If you’ve got your account being managed by somebody at Morgan Stanley they’re not doing it. But I mean on the really, really big money you’re getting a lot of buying coming in on the last day of the month so that the statements look a little bit better, lets just say, “less bad.” But with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ); this gapped up along with the rest of the market, it never really went anywhere.
I want you to be careful about this. I’ve been bearish on Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), and every once in a while I get some hate mail, which I laugh at, because it’s easy to be a “troll” on the Internet. A little bit tougher to look me in the face and say what you’re saying. But every once I’ll get one of those that calls me all kinds of names for being negative on Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), “Don’t you realize what a wonderful company it is?” Yes, I do. A lot of other people realized it too, from about $10.00. So my point, here on this is, the stock has peaked, it’s now rolling over. I’m really seriously looking forward to checking out those big iPads in November. Definitely more compelling to me than the iPhone. Why? Because my eyes are so bad, I actually have an iPad Mini, and to me it actually looks like a larger iPhone, and I squint all the time. So I like that idea, and I think that larger iPad is going to be huge for these guys, I do.
I’m not an engineer, but I think it’s going to be great. That to me is more compelling than what these guys did with a recycled iPhone with a pressure sensitive screen, for whatever reason that is, and better cameras to take selfies. So this doesn’t move me. THIS will move me, when the stock does this, it’s easy to be down on something, a little bit tougher to say, “Here’s what I would do.” So I’m telling you, here’s what I would do: I would look at about 116.00, 117.00 or so, as resistance for this stock. When the stock comes up here I would sell it. I wouldn’t short it. In my view you don’t want to be short a stock like Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), because it does have a big fan base, but you sell it.
And when it comes back down here to 110ish, you buy it again. Lather, rinse, repeat. It’s about a 5 percent gain or so. And then when the stock starts breaking above this level, and it will, it’s going to go, probably, to 130.00 before it goes to 90.00, and it may not get there. But you’re trade is, you watch this as resistance and every time the stock gets up here you sell, because that’s been the profitable trade. It’s going to continue to be the profitable trade until the one time when it’s not. That’s why I say you don’t short. You don’t want to be shorting the stock up here all smug and happy, and then, Boom! The stock runs up here and you’re wondering what to do, tracking it all the way up. “No, it will stop at the 200-day moving average and then I’ll be paid off for my short.” Seriously, this is an anaconda. You don’t want to be wrestling that thing.
But if the stock continues to bang up against this you want to be selling into that strength. If the stock starts rolling over and trading below here, honestly, I wouldn’t want to be shorting it either, I just wouldn’t want to be long, because this was a massive selloff. They do have new products coming out. The holiday season, my favorite time of year, is right around the corner and Apple’s ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) going to be big in that. In my view there’s a lot of compelling reasons to be interested in owning Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ). It just so happens that none of them are technical. So I’m staying away from this stock until I have a TECHNICAL reason, a reason that I can see on the chart for buying this stock. I’m just telling you, there is none right now. There’s none.
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