Here’s my long term take on Netflix ($NFLX) (April 20, 2020)
NFLX
I want to look at Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) and here is why: We are looking at this on the weekly chart; $400.00 seems like some pretty solid resistance to me. We will say the low was 250.00, so that is about $150.00. I am looking at, then, the price target for this and it would be, to use a technical term, a guess.
My guess is that the stock could go up to around 550.00; I just showed you my secret super-duper methodology. Take the distance between the top and the bottom of a well-defined channel, rounded as the user sees appropriate, and then add that to the top. This is really loosey-goosey stuff here, so that’s what I am looking for here, about 550.00. But that doesn’t help us trade the stock on earnings tomorrow. Actually, the company reports after the bell tomorrow and this is what I am looking at: I will tell you exactly what I am looking at; the implied move puts this chart up at around 495.00 at the very best case scenario and 387.50 in the worst-case scenario.
So to put it a different way, the stock should be trading within this box. And so what we are going to be looking for on Wednesday morning are edges; some type of an edge that we can exploit to take advantage of the big move in the stock. It’s going to go up one way or another and don’t think that you know; Oh, Coronavirus, everybody is sitting at home watching Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ).” That’s your edge? Really? These are the thoughts that you have to share about what you think Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) will do, because everybody is sitting at home watching Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) because of the Coronavirus.
I wish I had thought about that. All that stuff is baked into the price of the stock. This company is going to have to absolutely knock it out of the park in order to get the stock to move higher because everybody is already bullish on Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ). Now, they could very well do just that. Personally, I see about maybe 5, maybe 12 people canceling their Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) subscription when the whole “Kung flu” thing is over; that’s just what I see. I don’t think anybody is going to be canceling it because all of this time they are getting hooked on it.
It’s a little bit like cocaine or heroin only legal and not unhealthy for you; where you kind of get used to doing something, you get hooked on your shows, etcetera, etcetera, and you keep it. And yes, it’s a little bit like the health club membership to the health club that you haven’t been to in 2 1/2 years. But lately, you wish to heck, it was still open because for the first time in the last 2 1/2 years you feel like going to work out so at least you could be around other people and start feeling good about yourself. But, by the way, you can’t be around other people because that is, apparently, against the law.
So this is what I am talking about, I guess there is some Lion King something or other, I’m not into that but other people apparently are. I am the only guy who is missing out on that whole thing. My life is definitely the poorer for it; people get hooked on stuff like this. We are watching other shows, I couldn’t give a rip about CBS, ABC, Fox News, “MSLSD”, CNN, you name it, I don’t care about that. I am hooked on this kind of stuff.
And by the way, one other thing, TED Talks, do you know that’s the best free thing going? TED Talks; I think this Coronavirus thing has totally changed the way people watch TV. And so I look at stuff like Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) and I can see this thing hitting that target. I can see this thing hitting 550.00; not tomorrow, not next week, perhaps not even this year, but yes, I could see Netflix ( NASDAQ: NFLX ) running up another 25 percent, I will say by the end of the year. Sure, why not? That is my guesstimate.
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