Here’s how you deal with Nvidia – November 25, 2024
Dan Fitzpatrick here at StockMarketMentor.com. I’m happy to say that I don’t see this rabid fascination with NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) anymore.
That’s something I’ve been talking about for a while, where if the stock didn’t break out above 150.00, then it’s a dead stock. You could say, Oh, I think it’s going to get higher. Well, you’re really not paid to think, you’re paid to react to what you see, not to imagine what you want to see.
As I look at NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) here, I drew this line a while ago as far as where the 50-day moving average was. I said, “It would be really, really nice to see NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) fall back to the 50-day moving average and then find some kind of support there.” That may very well happen here.
However, this is a horrible closing location, the stock fell just about 5 percent off where it opened. The only reason the stock closed at 135.00 was because the closing bell rang. This thing looked like it was going straight down to where Gary Gensler is going to inhabit, the time after he resigns, retires, whatever. We got this gap up on earnings, and then ever since that time, it’s been under distribution.
This is my suggestion to you, don’t do anything. Watch the stock, I watch it because I have to. I’ll have an alert set on it, full disclosure, my wife and I have a fairly decent position in this, but for a trade, there is none here. That’s all I’ll say, there is none here. I’m not predicting this, I’m truly not, but stocks do ultimately hit their 200-day moving average.
Again, I’m not predicting it, but it could happen, and don’t think it can’t. Because virtually every stock at one point or another, will come back to its moving average of the last 200 days of trading. If we get a weak market, a rollover, or something like that, do not think that NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) cannot fall further.
It can fall, it could fall down to $100.00, you could say, Oh my gosh, no it couldn’t. Well, yes it can. That’s where it was just a couple of months ago, so it can do that. Just be careful of this. If you’re long, know where your exit is. Maybe your exit is sometime in 2026, but at least know what it is.
Otherwise, I’ll tell you exactly what’s going to happen. You’re going to hold this thing and going to hold this thing. And you’re going to say, Okay well, I should have sold it at 150.00, I didn’t sell it at 140.00. Well, I know it won’t go down to 130.00 so I’ll hang on to it here.
Then it goes down to 130.00, now you can’t afford to sell it. It goes to 125.00, now you definitely can’t afford to sell it. But by golly, you’re going to sell it when it gets back up to 150.00. Yeah, me too. Then finally you’re going to say, Enough of this, I’ve got to get out of this stock.
And as soon as you get out of the stock you’ve got to go on Twitter and you’ll find that Elon Musk has tweeted, Hey, Jethro Stokes, whatever your name is, has just sold all of his NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ), buy them, and then everybody buys. So you’ve got to stick with your stop. And if you don’t have one, you’ve got to learn how to set them.
So I’m still bullish on NVIDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA ), in this time frame. But it’s got to break through 150.00, obviously. This is intuitively obvious to all but the dimmest of wits. In order for the stock to get up to 200.00 it’s got to break 150.00 first. So why do we even care about 200.00? Let’s just see if this thing runs through 150.00 first. And so far, to me, through the end of this year, it’s looking to me like it’s dead money.
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