When is that watch being released? Meanwhile, let’s watch Apple (AAPL) (March 25, 2015)
We got a pretty nasty day in the market, particularly the NASDAQ. And if you look at the NASDAQ Composite ( INDEXNASDAQ:NDX ), well Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) would be like the number one holding in that one. Thank you Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), well thank you just about everything.
Here’s my issue with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), it’s back to the 50-day moving average and it’s been slowly drifting there, so volatility is actually declining. I don’t mean like VIX or implied volatility or anything, I mean just the zigzags in the stock. Right now it’s here but you don’t know whether this is going to have another decline or not. If the market bounces tomorrow Apples ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) going to bounce.
What I want you to do is focus here on the 50-day moving average don’t focus on the watch. Guess what? Everybody knows about the watch, some people think they’re going to sell a whole boatload of them others think they won’t. What’s going to move the stock? Nobody knows. Oh you’ll get somebody on CNBC on the day that it’s released giving some wild guess about how many watches Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is going to sell and blah, blah, blah.
If Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) doesn’t sell above this amount or if it sells below this amount then this is what’s going to happen to the stock. But you know what? I’ve been on CNBC and I can tell you this, they don’t know; they don’t know they’re just giving you an opinion. If you want to make money what I’m suggesting you do, don’t go steal a watch, if you want to make money watch the chart here, don’t be a true believer but don’t be an Apple bear either.
The stock is still trending higher but it’s got some issues. Look at how this stock traded lower for a while. Now if you’re a long-term holder this is good you’re about $10.00 away from an all time high, that’s not too bad. But if you’re more of a short-term trader know that this stock could trend lower for a while and it could drift below the 50-day moving average.
I think the watch is going to be released on IRS day, on April 15th, something like that. Wouldn’t that be funny? The watch day, when you know you’re being watched is also the Apple watch day. The bottom line is this, there’s no reason to just jump in and buy this stock now when the catalyst is still a ways away, but watch it, pardon the pun.
As long as the stock is staying above the 50-day moving average then I think you’re okay holding this stock. It came down pretty nasty today but there were a lot of stocks that came down further. So the fact that the stock, I’ll say is just above this last level here, that’s actually, I’m not going to say encouraging because lord knows you don’t know what tomorrow’s going to bring, but I will say it gives me a frame of reference here.
As long as the stock stays, we’ll specify it; here’s the low which is lower than the 50-day moving average, 121.63, as long as the stock stays above 121.63 I think it’s a stock that you can hold, you can even buy it. But don’t be a true believer because you could see the stock pullback to 110.00, which actually isn’t that big a deal but if you’re holding options on it it’s devastating.
So watch that level, don’t be too bullish, don’t be too bearish, be kind of a “Goldilocks” trader and know that these pullbacks, look at this, these have led to higher prices, led to higher prices, we can draw as many of them as you want, even this. Shook everybody out, shook more people out and finally we go up.
So look at this pattern, we could see that kind of move, that would make Carl Icahn very happy, “Carl the tweet” but just watch this level. You don’t want to see Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) go below that level or it’s probably going to move a lot lower to a good buying opportunity.
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