Align Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN)

Strategy Session November 12th, 2018

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ALGN Weekly Chart

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  • alwayslearning: $ALGN how can the alert be at 378 when the stock is at 368. just member.
  • djmurph: $ALGN Hi @alwayslearning An alert is set to let you know when you might want to start thinking about taking a position in a stock. In this case 378 is just a few dollars below the most recent high of 382 or so, which means it might break out if it crosses above that. It's a bit of a gamble to buy now at 368 b/c it could still move either way.
  • fasteddy: Dan, $ALGN Thanks for the Invisalign shout out last night...hope your orthodontist was listening
  • DAN: @fasteddy $ALGN LOIL. I think he was...hope so.
  • bRobert: $ALGN Sideways consolidation above 50d . Preparing for next move. Long term hold
  • rachel: ...
    $ALGN – resting. Tightening. Alert $378
    $SIVB – Alert $330
    $CVGW – 39 days to cover on 8/10
    $M – Breakout above $41. Earnings tomorrow.
    $URBN – breaking out.
    $CELG – I would not buy it here. B ...
  • bRobert: $ALGN . pinching a bit just above the 50d. No hurry. A little sideways drift will set up for next leg. Long term hold
  • bRobert: $ALGN Set up. Long term hold
  • bRobert: $ALGN $ABMD perky $MASI flag
  • bRobert: $ALGN $ABMD bounces continue
  • bRobert: $ALGN Bounce of trading low.
  • steve71: $ALGN Fails to hold. Out
  • steve71: $ALGN Day 3 of post earnings profit taking. Currently up $8 off the day low. With any luck the 50 dma holds, producing a HH HL pattern.
  • bRobert: $ALGN Will stalk for low risk add/entry.
  • captron: $ALGN @ woodman - Another medical stock that is offering a good place to add after beating on earnings.
  • woodman: @captron $ALGN - holding up a lot better than $ABMD. I need to figure out what it is about ABMD's earnings/guidance that is spooking the market. It may be nothing more than simply sell the news and its lofty price.
  • bRobert: @woodman $V $ABMD $AMZN #Earnings $ALGN after close
  • woodman: @bRobert $V $ABMD $AMZN $ALGN #Earnings - I truly hate earnings season.
  • bRobert: @woodman $V $ABMD $AMZN $ALGN #Earnings Understood but step back for a second and look at $ABMD $ALGN . Who did better, those trading it or holding it? I've been in $ALGN since $30. and $ABMD for a while. Some trading around a core. helps a bit. Pull some profits out after big runs until full position reloads
  • woodman: @bRobert $V $ABMD $AMZN $ALGN #Earnings - Thanks. I view ABMD V and AMZN (and ALGN -- as you mentioned -- which I don't have) as long tern holds. Earnings season always tests one's grit with these types.
  • bRobert: $ALGN nh $400 target
  • captron: $ALGN - Running out of steam. Taking profits here. Earnings next week.
  • otnancy: $ALGN - continues pre-earnings run (AMC 7/25)
  • captron: $ALGN - Within a couple bucks of previous high. Earnings 7/25 AMC
  • bRobert: $ALGN Looking for higher low
  • bRobert: $ALGN dip bought. $MASI set up. $ABMD trickling higher $MDT throwback/retest , buyers there
  • Gary: ...
    1. $ALGN – you are up over 50%. Top is $370. Take some profits. I will be removing this next week just b/c I want some new blood.
    2. $ALRM – broke down after I added. Now, it’s back to an “I just want my money back” ...
  • bRobert: $ALGN trigger $372 target
  • rachel: ...
    3. $ALGN – very strong move today. Support at $350.
    4. $GLOB – breakout above $57.50.
    5. $KEM – still going. Use trailing stop here.
    6. $ATVI – Breakout above $80 on volume. Alert at $81.50
    7. $TTWO – breaking out. ...
  • otnancy: $ALGN Had a big run from May to middle of June, moving sideways now (as Dan says, needs to rest). Earnings 7/25 AH. Should be another strong report. Earnings have been negative only twice in 5 years. Considering the large run-up before this recent consolidation, I don't expect much movement prior to earnings. Thinking about taking my earnings and having my teeth straightened. Full position. Stop @$340.
  • captron: $ALGN - Moving in the right direction.
  • rachel: ...
    10. $ALGN – needs a lot of rest here.
    11. $ANET – remains in a basing pattern. $250 is support. The longer this sideways channel lasts, the stronger the move will be.
    12. $CPRT – holding above 50-day MA. Stop below $55
    13. $QLYS ...
  • woodman: @bRobert $ABMD - $ALGN doing the same.
  • bRobert: @woodman $ABMD $ALGN They are workout buddies
  • bRobert: $ALGN $ABMD . Forming h&s tops.
  • rachel: ...
    13. $ALGN – take profits.
    14. $ANET – I would be selling this…or at least have a stop below the 200-day moving average
    15. $BLD – sell this.
    16. $QLYS – climax high at $95. Steep selloff. “MIGHT” stabiliz ...
  • issues: @bRobert $INSP is in the med prods group (ind grp 3). Also included are $ABMD $ALGN $INGN $BIOB. Compared to $TNDM and $DXCM - I think I like the newest $TNDM, but it's a greater risk, for sure. So I bought a starter in INSP and TNDM. Thanks Robby!
  • otnancy: $DOCU - got in at $58.25. Now up $3. $ALGN - bot in at $359. Up $5. Might sell at close.
  • rachel: ...
    $ALGN -- +85%. Raise stop to ~$330...but this is still going. Do NOT buy now. The last entry was at $270.
    $ALRM -- $ALRM Adding to GSL. Early (or late). Still building right side of base. Prefer buying around $42 (50-day MA support). Do not cha ...
  • woodman: More #MedicalDevices - $ALGN $GMED $DXCM $EW $HAE $TNDM $ACRX $LIVN $NVTR $CRY $IRMD $AXGN $TCMD $INGN $OFIX $CNMD $IART $PEN $POD $XENT $INSP $SYK (big pull back, may be opportunity)
  • mopick: @woodman $ALGN $GMED $DXCM $EW $HAE $TNDM $ACRX $LIVN $NVTR $CRY $IRMD $AXGN $TCMD $INGN $OFIX $CNMD $IART $PEN $POD $XENT $INSP $SYK #MedicalDevices , I like the etf, $IHI, which incorporates many of these same names without the individual stock risk. Great chart, up almost 20% YTD.
  • riskmanager: @woodman $ALGN $GMED $DXCM $EW $TNDM $ACRX $LIVN $NVTR $CRY $IRMD $AXGN $TCMD $INGN $OFIX $CNMD $IART $PEN $POD $XENT $INSP $SYK #MedicalDevices That pullback in ALGN to 334 the other day was a missed opportunity. Should have pounced on that.
  • woodman: @mopick $ALGN $GMED $DXCM $EW $HAE $TNDM $ACRX $LIVN $NVTR $CRY $IRMD $AXGN $TCMD $INGN $OFIX $CNMD $IART $PEN $POD $XENT $INSP $SYK $IHI #MedicalDevices Nothing wrong with 20%, for sure. And that would be a safe route to go. But many of these stocks have such great long term charts that if you can get one or a few at a good spot, or take a plunge higher than you like but with the idea of adding on a pullback, then you could greatly outperform IHI. If these were biotechs, with huge risk in any individual stock (and all small/mid sized biotechs have a lot of risk), I'd be more inclined to buy the index. JMHO.
  • spmeyers: @woodman $ALGN $GMED $DXCM $EW $HAE $TNDM $ACRX $LIVN $NVTR $CRY $IRMD $AXGN $TCMD $INGN $OFIX $CNMD $IART $PEN $POD $XENT $INSP $SYK #MedicalDevices thanks; this group is rockin' big time
  • grcjr: $ALGN - set a new intra-day all time high. Could drift right for a bit, even a bit lower creating a new trading range. Or it might just continue the recent trend up.
  • woodman: @CHOFF $CRSP $EDIT $NTLA #CRSPR - days like today make me wonder, yet again, why I just don't just stick with #MedicalDevices and avoid biotechs. Look at the monthly charts of, e.g., $ABMD (long) $ALGN (np) $ISRG (long) $GMED (long) $EW (np) and others.
  • CHOFF: @woodman $CRSP $EDIT $NTLA $ABMD $ALGN $ISRG $GMED $EW #CRSPR #MedicalDevices It definitely feels safer doesn't it? Big winners...I can think of a couple more like $HAE and $DXCM too. Maybe with all those winners, perhaps the pendulem is due to swing back over to Biotech at some point?
  • woodman: @CHOFF $CRSP $EDIT $NTLA $ABMD $ALGN $ISRG $GMED $EW $HAE $DXCM #CRSPR #MedicalDevices - risks/pitfalls for #Biotech is significantly greater than for medical devices.
  • Stuart: ...
    $ALGN 19% > 50 SMA ; $BZUN 18% > 50 SMA ; $ZTO 18% > 50 SMA ; $LULU 17% > 50 SMA ; $ABMD 17% > 50 SMA
    $TAL 17% > 50 SMA ; $KEM 17% > 50 SMA

    9 IBD >= 10% but < 15% above the 50 SMA
    $NOAH 14% > 50 SMA ; $MU 13% > 5 ...
  • CHOFF: @woodman $CRSP $EDIT $NTLA $ABMD $ALGN $ISRG $GMED $EW $HAE $DXCM #CRSPR #MedicalDevices #Biotech Indeed and the risk is looking much less justified these days.
  • Gary: ...
    4. $ALGN – extended. Stay long…with fractional stops.
    5. $CPRT – still being bought.
    6. $ATHM – decent time to add to position.
    7. $ICUI – resting. Breakout above $300 would be very positive. Thinly traded! Don&rsq ...
  • Gary: ...
    3. $ALGN – still going.
    4. $HTHT – Looking for $50.
    5. $AMZN – Looking for 1700...and then 1,900 by end of year.
    6. $BABA – you can be a bit fearless long as you keep a stop below $200.
    7. $DOCU – use 60 minut ...
  • Gary: ...
    8. $ALGN – use a trailing stop. $325 is reference for your stop. Alert $325
    9. $OLLI – holding
    10. $BLD – week for 3 consecutive days. This is negative price action.
    11. $TRHC – resting
    12. $SQM – random lithium stoc ...
  • Robert1965: @DAN $ALGN new HI time to add
  • DAN: @Robert1965 $ALGN It's pretty extended to add here. At this point, I kinda think that your position is your position. Tough to add...BUT not impossible. Just treat your new purchase as a separate trade, with a pretty tight stop to save you IF the stock reverses here.
  • woodman: #MedicalDevices such as $GMED (long) $ALGN (np) and even $ABMD (long) have been in a pattern where once they got going, they kept going. GMED and ALGN are in that place now; ABMD has been in that place for a long time, though slowing up and flattening a bit now. Another that I'm looking at here is $ISRG (one I've just been holding for a while). It has not "gotten going" ... yet. But its BBs are starting to squeeze at an old resistance/new support point. It may have some more work to do, but I think it has potential.
  • debeers: @woodman $GMED $ALGN $ABMD $ISRG #MedicalDevices $BA-this was a difficult one to stick with but I did and I'm more convinced than ever that the more the "pros" and the "smart money" tries to talk down the market, the more the blips should be bought and the greater the chances for success.R U still in?
  • woodman: @debeers $GMED $ALGN $ABMD $ISRG $BA #MedicalDevices - Yes, I'm still in $BA. I last added to mine on 5/18 as it moved up through resistance out of that muck it had been in.
  • otnancy: $ALGN - I'm up huge in ALGN, which I would not have even known about if not for SMM! My IRA loves this stock!! Thanks so much Dan for all your hard work!!! Trailing stop @ 3%.
  • DAN: @otnancy $ALGN Nice job, otnancy. Very happy to see you are doing so well! 8-)
  • Gary: ...
    11. $ALGN – try a 3%-4% trailing stop.
    12. $HTHT – adding to GSL.
    a. EPS: 17, 56, 57, 57
    b. Rev: 18, 34, 42, 42
    c. RS: 95
    d. EPS rating 99
    e. 3-5 year growth rate 36%
    f. Recent 4:1 split, and stock is higher.
    13. $H – Alert $82.65 ...
  • DAN: @shoredriver 2532 is the 2018 low from February. I could see that happening. If that's his downside level, then what he's really calling for is another 5% drop in the S&P..which would essentially mean that 2018 would be a flat year of consolidation...which might be a top...or just a higher base. Very important to focus much less on the overall market, and more on the stocks that you own, or want to buy. Stocks are down today. If you've got a stock that's up, then you're in the right places. Look at $ATHM, $CPRT, $DOCU, $ICUI, $ALGN, $TWTR, $PRLB. They're all up today. So you know where money is flowing into. Those are some of the stocks you should be owning (lmany of them are already on the GSL)
  • otnancy: $ALGN - I love my ALGN! moving up into the close!
  • rachel: ...
    2. $ALGN – still moving. Use a trailing stop.
    3. $CPRT -- $52.-56 range.
    4. $ATHM – bought more today. This is a stock to hold. Not to trade.
    5. $TWTR –wanted to add…but didn’t.
    6. $PRLB – still consolidating. ...
  • woodman: $ALGN - keeps going. Np.
  • woodman: $GMED $ALGN - a couple medical device stocks that are working. Long GMED. Np ALGN.
  • Gary: ...
    1. $ALGN – Let this reduced position run. Very important to understand the value of fractional stops/exits.
    2. $ATHM – up 40%. Still working. Pattern shows many weeks of sideways moves...then another move higher.
    3. $BLD – prett ...
  • DAN: @puttz #Growth $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR That's the current lineup.
  • genki: @DAN $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth Has $CPRT bottomed?
  • Bogeyboy: @DAN $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth $TRHC is up 4% today. I hate TRHC.
  • bsafriet: @Bogeyboy $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth I just gave up on it. Tired of being stopped out all the time, then missed the latest move because I was holding out for lower prices. %(
  • bsafriet: @genki $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth $ CPRT reports tonight after the close. Sold mine yesterday.
  • Bogeyboy: @bsafriet $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth #metoo I am probably down $3000 on this train wreck. Sold off 2/3 of my position yesterday and it reverses upward in the next trading session. Stupid dragon fly killed me the first try on this company. I am done with this POS.
  • issues: @puttz $ALGN $ATHM $BLD $CPRT $ETSY $GRUB $ICUI $OLLI $PRLB $SQM $TRHC $TWTR #Growth I can't believe your name. Cute
  • DAN: $ALGN -- you should be taking some profits on ALGN. Gap and reverse today on above average volume. That's a reversal. Don't ride this down. It's been a very very solid performer for us since first being added in October. Pretty volatile, which has allowed for trading around the position. But it's pulling back from $300.
  • woodman: @DAN $ALGN - I'm thinking it'll test the 287-289 level (prior all time high back in January).
  • otnancy: @DAN $ALGN approaching $300. Question: would it be OK to sell calls against my position as compared to culling the stock by 50% when it hits $300?
  • DAN: @otnancy $ALGN Sure. You could do that if you really don't want to sell (which is always a choice you can make). If you made that trade right now, the $300 calls are selling at $9 (stock at $294). So selling the $300 calls reduces your cost basis in the stock by $9. And you'll only have to sell the stock if it gains another $5 from current levels. So waiting for a higher price in ALGN before doing that only improves your position (assuming that ALGN does indeed hit $300 -- no guarantees of that). That help? --Dan
  • DAN: $ALGN -- top is here. Lots of selling into this rally.
  • Robert1965: @DAN $ALGN thanks lost track of it
  • rachel: ...
    6. $ALGN – Should be taking profits.
    7. $TRHC – still going. Up more than 25% and it’s been smooth. Are you overtrading?
    8. $DQ – great breakout from volatility squeeze.
    9. $FIVE – Close to the “oops, I’m ...
  • otnancy: $ALGN continues to work.
  • Gary: ...
    $ALGN – Would be taking some profits if it tests $300. Trade around the core.
    $ATHM – Breakout at $100. But you should be taking SOME profits here. Stock is still very strong...but you are up 44%. Book some profits and wait for pullback ...
  • woodman: $ALGN - I hope folks were fast to sell the pop.
  • captron: $ALGN @woodman - The gap and crap maneuver this morning had to be the I want my money back crowd buying the gap up. I am still holding in LT. As long as we have teenagers, they will have a profit.
  • woodman: @captron $ALGN - it has come back decently.
  • captron: @woodman $ALGN I figure this weekend when they check the earnings in detail, it will attract some buys next week.
  • Junior1: Reminder, per @DAN "Facebook ($FB), PayPal ($PYPL), eBay ($EBAY) and Align Tech ($ALGN). These companies all report earnings tonight and should be big movers tomorrow morning." Along with $F, $V, $CMG and $QCOM Tomorrow before bell... $UPS
  • shoredriver: $ALGN earnings beat up 7% or so.....
  • Gary: ...
    2. $ALGN – earnings beat. But stock not up enough to break. Look at 50-day MA tomorrow.
    3. $PYPL – up 3% and into supply. Not interesting.
    4. $EBAY – down at 200-day MA. Rebound tomorrow?
    5. $F – not enough potential to ...
  • shoredriver: @woodman $BA $CAT $LMT Rather itchy about $EW and $ALGN tomorrow
  • woodman: @shoredriver $BA $CAT $LMT $EW $ALGN - Good luck on those.
  • gig1: @Dan Just to clarify, $ALGN reports earnings next week.
  • Danzguy: @gig1 $ALGN ...just to be helpful, you can google that question to get your answer... Best wishes!
  • shoredriver: @Danzguy $ALGN @gig @DAN....Emailed Dan that last night after the SS asking if this was a shot across the bow or a good dip to buy/add before response....yet..
  • numbers: @gig1 $ALGN - Dan typically does not work on Fridays. Yesterday Morgan Stanley downgraded ALGN, Zacks just downgraded today, but Berenberg initiated coverage when a $305 PT according to Fidelity.
  • DAN: @gig1 $ALGN Thanks for the info, gig1. I made a mistake. I saw the selloff and somehow, magically, assumed that earnings were reported. The fall was a valuation downgrade. Totally my oversight. Thanks for posting, gig1. Dan
  • Gary: ...
    21. $ALGN – Very dangerous here. Might pop...might drop next Wednesday.
    22. $AGO – coming out of a base. Would buy some here with a stop below $36...and then maybe add above $38.
    23. $HD – still working off the January blowoff. ...
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Stock Price $USD 225.41
Change 1.19%
Volume 1,061,080

Align Technology, Inc designs, manufactures and markets the Invisalign system, a method for treating the misalignment of teeth.

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