TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX)
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- Onthemark: My fav main longs today: $AXON, $KRMN, $PLTR and $TMDX. Fav Long Specs: $ATAT, $PCAPU and $SPRY
- joelsg1: $TMDX Keeps on flying, not getting old even with RSI above 83.
- woodman: @joelsg1 $TMDX - It's been a nice one. Nice job with this.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Blew through that $140 double I posted yesterday. We'll know Friday how many of those 8M shorts covered and get an idea how many more to come.
- camaro69: @joelsg1 $TMDX Great trade
- joelsg1: @camaro69 $TMDX Still alive, think more to come at least through next E around 7/30 and not that much risk if one uses 8d as stop. Of course, super thin.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Red to Green and approaching $140, a double from where this move started 2 months ago. More to go as shorts still need to cover before 7/30 E update.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Tapping $140, an exact double of this 2 month move. We'll know more about shorts when the Nasdaq reports it this Friday after the close. No handle down, so perhaps none back up, which could mean $170.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Riding the 8d since $70, very thin with shorts covering. I'm reminded of adage 'Never short a stock at 6 month high', so took off or rolled all short calls, Long every which way into at least late July E, though gotta expect at least some handle to this cup, down to at least the 20d.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Impressive presentation at Blair conference last night. Piper raised from $125 to $145.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Flight data for current Q ending this month up 18% from last Q, CEO at William Blair Conference tonight 5pm et, held the 8d after another short raid at $130 resistance. Quite Long into next E around 7/30.
- woodman: $TMDX @joelsg1, another move higher today.
- Onthemark: @woodman $TMDX Added this morning
- joelsg1: @woodman $TMDX Yep, holding morning gap. We can almost see shorts covering, and I think this continues through August E.
- camaro69: @woodman $TMDX Nice move
- joelsg1: $TMDX Almost time for late day shorts scurrying
- joelsg1: $TMDX Again, shorts scurrying into the close. I can get so used to this.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Short interest comes out twice a month on NASDAQ, as of 5/15 9.48M shares short when stock was $121, down about 700k shares from last report 4/30 when stock was at $91. More to come, Long.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Watch those shorts cover!
- joelsg1: $PLTR I will let my $80 calls exercise today, same with $TMDX $85s.
- joelsg1: $TMDX NBC tv show Chicago Med supposedly did a show last night about a lung transplant, showing $TMDX perfusion machine to transport. April flight data was positive and May could be even better, leading to hopefully another beat and raise next E 7/30. Short squeezers taking a pause as volume half of past few, but don't think it's close to being done. Adding to share pile by exercising $85 calls today.
- cgendro1: @joelsg1 $TMDX - I watch that show and did see it. :)
- joelsg1: @cgendro1 $TMDX Thanks for confirmation.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Still squeezing, added July $120-145 call spreads.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Short squeeze continuing, as Mayo Clinic extols virtues of $TMDX perfusion systems. https://x.com/medtechmd/status/1921406592789946476/photo/1
- vcondry: @joelsg1 $TMDX thanks again for pointing this one out weeks ago!
- camaro69: @joelsg1 $TMDX What great technology. you mentioned this might happen Nice
- joelsg1: @vcondry $TMDX You're welcome, gap fill almost there to $116.58, Friday's intraday high $120.93 next add. Let's go!!!
- woodman: @joelsg1 $TMDX - Big Island Reversal here as it gaps up this morning (see 10/29/24 gap down). Congrats on this one. You've been a steadfast proponent.
- camaro69: $TMDX, $NET, TTD a few earnings winners from yesterday may be worth watching
- Wolf: @camaro69 $TMDX $NET $NET Nice pullback and bounce.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Power outage here 15 min. in. Fortunately I was able to make a few trades, took some options profits, Golden Rule in effect, and rolled some now itm short strike legs of call spreads up/out for credits. But then power out until now restored. (Reminder to set and adjust stops regularly in case this happens to you and you don't have the Powerwall and possibly Starlink internet. Most generators run on gas which may be cut along with power.) E was mic drop moment, as I thought it might be, and now outside the $16 implied move with a juicy short squeeze in process. Mgmt. is typically cautious with their guide, setting up at least 1 more beat and raise so the short squeeze has legs. If this drops back to the 200d around $100, could provide good entry if you're not already in.
- joelsg1: @woodman $TMDX Thanks, that short squeeze I've been talking about is in motion, the stock trading volume so far is 10% of the entire shares out, and this could fill that entire gap by next E in August, or sooner if the squeeze tightens.
- marklesparkle: @joelsg1 $TMDX I got a double on half a spread Good going
- joelsg1: @marklesparkle $TMDX Nice.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Big day today with E after the close. Implied move about $16, but there's 25% short. Long every which way and just added. Increasing flight data bodes well for beat and raise. About 1 year ago crushed E and went to $170 before ultimately crash and burn.
- camaro69: @joelsg1 $TMDX thoughts on holding some. I'm thinking half, you?
- joelsg1: @camaro69 $TMDX Long and strong, holding through, only rolled up/out a few short covered $95 calls for credits. If I'm right could trigger mighty short squeeze on a thin stock and gap fill to $115.
- Onthemark: $TMDX joelsg1, what about the class action lawsuit filed against the company? Any concern that earnings would be affected in defending the action?
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX I don't know, don't think they've disclosed that, but generally No. And upon a bit of research, appears the MA lawsuit was based on the Scorpion Caital short report which is BS.
- Onthemark: $TMDX reported quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.25 by 180 percent. This is a 100 percent increase over earnings of $0.35 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $143.54 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $123.66 million by 16.07 percent. This is a 48.21 percent increase over sales of $96.85 million the same period last year. Great call joelsg1 !!
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX Short squeeze incoming. Boom!
- Obsxllc: @joelsg1 $TMDX 25 percent of the shares are short!
- joelsg1: @Obsxllc $TMDX 8.7M short as of last report. Avg. daily volume around 630k, so that's 13 trading days if they drip it out. Giddyup!
- joelsg1: $TMDX Thin so thin volume but strong into E and hopefully increased guide Thursday evening.
- Onthemark: @joelsg1 $TMDX I'm also long. Like the pennant pattern formed as it awaits the E report.
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX Let's Go on both.
- joelsg1: $TMDX My first post today on this didn't appear, so I'll try again. Reports Thursday evening, flight data should be up 20% from Q1 and continuing even stronger into April first month of next Q, so expecting strong guidance which should move stock higher. Breaking out today (It's thin so don't sweat the volume) from a high shelf aiming to exceed 200d around $100. Hefty share and spread pos but added July $95-110 call spreads.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Today's drop may be new buy opportunity into 5/8 E and guide which should impress. They opened a 2nd HQ in Italy to handle European market.
- Onthemark: @joelsg1 $TMDX Been in from below, and waiting for it to trade in the gap. Lots of upside once it gets moving.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Breakout continuing into potential gap fill and E 4/29 with updated guide. Rolled up/out short covered calls to $110s for credits.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Spreads filled so far for triple, letting them expire today. Have uncovered $65s also expiring today, letting them exercise. Ramping into E 4/29.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Slight trim of itm calls expiring Thursday.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Back to green on 1M shares.
- joelsg1: $TMDX HOD-L.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Added May $85-105 call spreads, playing the short squeeze into E 4/29.
- marklesparkle: @joelsg1 $TMDX Took a few . Your spreads work mostly which aint a bad average lol
- joelsg1: @marklesparkle $TMDX Not mostly, but at a 1-3 risk reward like this one good enough.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Ramping.
- vcondry: @joelsg1 $TMDX extended above the upper bollinger here...wish I had been in it a couple days ago ... similar look to Feb 19th which then saw it drop back down ...
- joelsg1: @vcondry $TMDX I'm all over this one with shares and spreads, including riding some of it down but still profitable. It's now back to the 2/27 post-E pop level, pretty confidant they raise guidance again, and with only 33.6M shares out, E pop could be substantial.
- vcondry: @joelsg1 $TMDX A close over 80 would be a great sign that its ready to turn .... wish it had more volume but I definitely get your point.
- joelsg1: @vcondry $TMDX Too thin to have much volume.
- vcondry: @joelsg1 $TMDX im just meaning avg vol percentage change .. leaderboard has it 34% down on the day but 24% up on the week ... 33 million shares ... man that is thin though.
- joelsg1: @vcondry $TMDX And there is strong institutional ownership, Boston-based funds which is where their HQ is. And the topper: nearly 30% short. All we need is a spark, like increased guide.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Back to green into E 4/29. New flight/transplant data strong, almost ensures raised guide (while others cease guidance).
- joelsg1: $TMDX There are better ones, but good flight and liver transplant data, could ramp into E 4/29. Long.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Showing a pulse.
- Dig44north: @joelsg1 $TMDX $RH moving towards the implied move after earnings. Nice call, followed you on a similar trade
- joelsg1: @Dig44north $TMDX $RH I'm going through the shareholder letter and have no opinion yet, though they did guide for sales up 10-13%. I jumped the gun with this over-E trade, no reason not to wait until last day to place, implied move at close was about $40, now down that ah. I'll do fine on the posted trade, will close 1st hour tomorrow, but could have been better had I waited.
- joelsg1: @joelsg1 $TMDX $RH OK, looks like they missed and gave cautious guide, blaming tariffs. Not sure what new tariffs they're announcing on $RL's trading partners but sounds like big ones on Vietnam and China, so expecting an even bigger dumping tomorrow. So...Boom !
- joelsg1: @joelsg1 $TMDX $RH Should gain at least a triple on that trade.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Still ramping into E and hopefully updated guide tonight. Implied move about $16 in thin market, only 33.5M shares out and almost one third short sets up big squeeze potential. Have cushion beyond that move, holding through.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Beat and raise, up over 10% ah. Could be short covering fireworks tomorrow.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Ramping into E tomorrow with all-important guide. Implied move about $17. Long shares and spreads.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Strong above the 8d into E 2/27. Added calls.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Miscreants at Scorpion Capital are back on X with their short BS, but the stock not taking the bait (this time). It's ridiculous that these guys can publish their BS and the target company can't respond because they're in quiet period before E 2/27. Rules should change accordingly. Provides some more incentive for management to be relentlessly positive on that E call next week. Long.
- Onthemark: $TMDX spec situation, made a higher low and higher high now. Still needs a lot of work, but added at 76.40. looking for a move over 82 to add again.
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX All over it Long from $60, getting traction in Europe with their OCS machines and of course the end-to-end transplant business in US, E 2/27 and should get new guidance from notoriously cautious mgmt team, but they were burned by a bogus Scorpion short report last month and may want to recalibrate expectations higher as a result. Will attend big Cowen healthcare conference in Boston 3/3.
- joelsg1: $TMDX HOD-L.
- Onthemark: $TMDX over $75, added this morning.
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX Flight data strong, could be a blowout short-covering E call 2/26.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Still bouncing into E 2/26 when we should get updated guide. Mgmt. said weekly flight data is valid indicator of strength. Strong up through the 50d, though still below the 200d. Up $18 in 10 days, sign of things to come with only 33M shares out and 26% short. Long shares from all over, calls and spreads.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Strong flight data foretells good E story/guide on 2/26, forming that "W", Opp. reiterates $125. Long (Though I confess when I heard about Philly medjet crash which was an old Lear I looked to see if $TMDX involved--they fly newer Embraer.)
- joelsg1: $TMDX Back to the 50d/pivot after $15 bounce from (hopefully) bottom. Mgmt confirmed that weekly flight data published on X is a good measure of business growth and those numbers strong ramping into E 2/26. Long.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Strong Day.
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- joelsg1: $TMDX Day 3 of 20% bounce now that tax selling done.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Tax loss selling over and it appears their organ transplant flights were back on track in December. Mgmt. guided to 20-25% rev growth in '25, now trades at a low 4x revs, 6x would be a $100 stock, playing for that and more. E 2/26 should be interesting.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Been a disaster since Aug. $177 cut 2/3 and now reported 20-30% short interest with only 33.5M shares outstanding. Still like the business but the stock broken. Hopefully tax loss selling now done. With the weekly RSI now down to extreme 30, time to sell cash-secured puts around 20% lower than current price. Sold July $50 cash-secured puts for about $8.50 each.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Got whacked again and now down $100 from Aug. high and $50 below 200d, CFO replaced after reporting 2 consecutive Qs of flat growth with tepid explanations, and just cut current Q rev est. by 1%. No bueno. But, this is what happens to a growth stock esp. one with only 33.5M shares out. Unfortunately, I still have conviction in their biz, thought it would bottom at $80 but now $72. Plenty better investment vehicles abound, but they have an opportunity to reset at Investor day next Tues. 10am et, where they might give some guide for '25 that moves the stock.
- woodman: @joelsg1 $TMDX - just saw this, fyi. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4741974-transmedics-stock-attractive-for-long-term-investors
- joelsg1: @woodman $TMDX Thank you. Next week's conference probably just a rehash so have to wait for their annual guide at Q1 E 2/26.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Schedules Investor Day in NYC 12/10 10am et. Opportunity to clarify last Q was aberration.
- Onthemark: @joelsg1 $TMDX I'm back in, and already added.
- Vineet: @joelsg1 $MSTR $MSTX any thoughts on the perpetual drops in $TMDX - will be using this for tax losses against $mstr$$
- joelsg1: $TMDX 20% recovery off double tap $80 low following slight E miss overreaction. Could run into next E in Feb. when we'll get more clarity as well as annual guide, but very thin so typically runs up early and fades late. Long shares and April $95-125 call spreads.
- Onthemark: @joelsg1 $TMDX started this one before the crash, and was determined to climb my way back. began buying again from times between 81 to 93. Sold a bunch today at 96 and 94. So far up a few hundred, which started out terrible.
- joelsg1: @Onthemark $TMDX Nice.
- joelsg1: $TMDX Climbing off the mat after overreaction to Q3 E slight miss which was telegraphed (but ignored by many including me). Added in stages since $80 though beware as below the 200d 'where nothing good happens'. Next E supposedly 2/26 when they will guide for 2025 which should move this thin stock perhaps back to old highs.
| Stock Price | $114.56 |
| Change | -2.07% |
| Volume | 793,580 |
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